Indo –China Standoff at Doklam.

Two of the oldest and rich civilisations who are racing towards becoming major global powers are at conflict raising fears of escalation to a short or full fledged military confrontation. The conflict started from June when at Doklam Plateau, a tri junction point between India, Bhutan and China ,China unilaterally started its effort to build up a road breaking the status quo of land ,since the area had been considered disputed by both Bhutan and China.

India holds the authority to look into strategic and foreign affairs of Himalayan Buddhist kingdom { now a democracy}, which is a beautiful state not too much known to the outside world. Unilateral attempts from China to break the status quo forced India to intervene with military personals forming human chain and not allowing China to start with the construction activity, posing a serious threat to our Siliguri Corridor

We have seen that China has made a giant leap in global economy by  manufacturing products and selling to the markets. Same time China has had boundary disputes with its neighbours. We have bitter memories of 1962 war where we lost against an aggressive Chinese army. Many stories of bravery of the war shown by Indian troops despite lacking logistics and military supply and disadvantageous locations are now getting known due to attention about this current crisis.Just a day ago, the Chinese premier during the 90th formation day of PLA pointed about the capacity to defend the land from any intruder. Chinese People Liberation Army was formed in 1927.

Much has been getting into public attention about the need of both the economies to grow and all possible efforts to avoid war. Chinese media which is a state monitored forum has clearly projected India’s stance as a violation of LOAC and blamed Indian armies of misadventure into the Chinese territories. Indian response has been of not removal of soldiers from current position but avoiding the initiation of conflict.

 

Both nations have grown significantly in economic terms as well as military terms. There has been consistent comparison made between the arsenals of both the nations and the capacity with which each one can inflict heavy damage to the farthest cities in other’s nation.China has made a position stronger in geopolitics due to its expanding economic influence. It has invested heavily in Africa, Srilanka and Pakistan.The main concern of the Indian military installation had been that any road construction at the disputed sight will give China an easy advantage to block the Chicken neck corridor, thus in armed conflict enabling it to detach the Indian mainland from the North East.

China has been coming with its economic plans like OBOR{One belt one Road}, CPEC{China Pakistan Economic Corridor}.It wanted India to be a part of CPEC,but India refused due to the CPEC corridor passing through  illegally annexed POK .China and Indian have a trade relation, but it is highly imbalanced and tilted in favour of China .In the last decade Indian leadership under the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh started realising that we need a strike unit of  Military for the eastern sector too. Repeated boundary violations by Chinese in Ladakh,Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand forced the leadership to realise the importance of having strong infrastructure and military deployment .Thus we saw the establishment of 80,000 strong mountain corps unit which will be only for mountain warfare. It is considered to be one of the largest mountain warfare capable forces in world today.

Today under the Prime Minister Narendra Modi we see the resolve to maintain the future strategic advantage at Siliguri corridor. It is interesting to notice as entire Chinese media can give a manipulated impression to its population. China of lately has been in conflict over islands with Japan, and same time over the South China sea which it has claimed totally .Chinese media everywhere proclaimed others as aggressors. Regional super power has much stronger advantage over India in terms of equipments and size, but due to consistent involvement with the Naxal insurgents within India and extremist outfits against Jammu Kashmir, Indian forces are better equipped with experiences of real confrontations.USA and many of the neighbours feel that China has been bullying the neighbours due to its military might.

India and China have one of strongest civilisations on planet. They are moving fast outpacing the growth figures of many European nations. And both have the potential to be very prominent till 2050.Remember China has been UNSC permanent member, and any expansion in future if possible may see new nations included. India has all possibilities due to its vast thriving democracy which has been functioning despite so much diversity.

Indian leadership this time has been strengthening the defences and also at the same time continuing to make India strong .A war will be disastrous for both. Important strategic installations have been monitoring the situation with hopes of possible dialogue.

Harsh Vardhan Pathak

 

Uttarakhand and Waiting Mountains

Abstract: 

 

Today’s Uttrakhand faces euphoric concept called Migration. We usually keep on listening debates on news channels about Uttrakhand Migration and politician waffling about how to curb Migration. While retrograding my Professor opinion on both side migrations accruing our state, Uttrakhand is on serious call to applaud devil and dissent with serenity. My last 22 days visit to Uttrakashi District for field survey left with some of intriguing issues and facts about future of Uttrakhandies. Well it’s so astonishing that neither a state  nor centre government had ponder how to stabilised migration, instead of their political agenda, on the serious note Uttrakhand is glittering on the hand of mafia’s and human traders.This paper revel about the sorrow state of Uttarakhand Migration, this report also ponder upon whether migration should be considered as problem or a global phenomena which is unstoppable, This report provide same suggestion due to which government can cartel 60 per cent of its migration and migratory pattern. 

 

 

Table 1

Select Demographic Features of Uttarakhand and India, 2011

Sl. Variable         Uttarakhand   India
No.             Hill Plain areas Total  
              areas      
1. Population (in millions)   48.50 52.36 100.86 1210.8
                    6
2. 0-6 years population (%)   13.18 13.68 13.44 13.60
3. Population growth rate (2001- 0.70 2.82 1.74 1.64
  2011)                  
4. Sex ratio (all age groups) 1037 900 963 943
5. Sex ratio (0-6 age group)   894 888 890 919
6. SC population (%)     20.91 16.78 18.76 16.6
7. ST population (%)     1.05 4.60 2.89 8.6
8. % Urban population     17.06 42.43 30.23 31.2
9. Growth  in urban population 2.43 3.81 3.42 2.80
  (2001-2011)              
10. Literacy Rate (%)     80.87 76.90 78.82 73.0
11. % Workers (main plus 43.71 33.47 38.39 39.8
  marginal) in total population        
  (WPR)                
12. WPR- Male       48.32 50.84 49.67 53.3
13 WPR-Female       39.26 14.16 26.68 25.5

 

Source: Calculated from Primary Census Abstract, India and Uttarakhand, 2011

 

 

 

Migratory Pattern and Migration:

 

Migration is mellow dramatic politics of Uttrakhand number of politicians waffling about migration and their impact and even demonstrates their plan to halt migration and advocates for reverse migration, but pragmatically reverse migration is same as “cultivating sugar cane in desert”. Before starting to write about migration and its adverse impact, the very notion we all should ponder that whether migration is a problem or a trend of globalisation, which is indispensable and unstoppable, does cause of migration are similar in entire Uttrakhand or dependent on three basic foundations like education, health and employment, is debacle. This report will future discusses many other factors of migration. Due to variations in geographical terrains Uttrakhand do not have similar factors affecting migration and its causes, it has been observed that Uttrakhand possess different factors causing migration in different parts of Uttrakhand, which implies that Uttrakhand need different policies to tackles with factors causing migration along with different regions of Uttrakhand. There are some factors which have been identified while my field visit, they are as following:

 

1.Education Migration:

 

Education is the most pertinent tool to re-shape not only individual future but also decides modernity of future. Government have started mid day meal and free assistance to the poor families to augment number of students in classes, we have seen status of primary education though have gained some strength but still majority of students fails to have accessibility of higher education and field of innovation. Tangling issue faced by the Garhwal students is to whether or not attend the classes in different weathers because they have to travel more than five to seven kilometres every day for their classes. Rest of the students somehow managed them self’s to settle in Uttrakashi for higher education, for different coaching classes to prepare for future studies. Due to lack of proper higher education institution students have to migrate to different district and states which can be called as Education Migration.

 

 

2. Health Migration:

 

Health is another trembling issue faced by the Garhwalies (people living in Grahwal). While taking interviews of villagers they keep on recounter about flash flood and landslides due to which not only villagers get injured but also their cattle’s, many of the incidence happened in the past where villagers get injured while landslides and cloud bust they have to rush hospital but due to any primary bandage victim have to lose their last breath. While collecting sample for different villages and blocks not a single village had blessed with Primary health centres (PHC) fortunately if some village have one, that do not posses a single doctors with absence of availability of medicines. Government “Janani Suraksha” scheme have shown some hope for betterment, under this scheme. Pregnant women can call for 108 (Ambulance help line) Ambulance picks and drop women and her ward to her village without any monetary charges, government hospital also pays 1400 rupees to the women after getting delivery of her child. Bhattwadi and Dunda blocks of villagers have to dependent on Uttrakashi government hospital for the medical aid and have to face crunch of availability of good doctors, many of the villages even do not have road connectivity due to which pregnant women and patients have lifted by human poachers to the reach native village which have road connectivity, (it was hard to imagine how to poach a pregnant women in those vertical muddy and bumpy path).The another Blocks Purola and Nauguan village have dependency on the Badkot villages which have some medical facility with lack of availability of good doctors, failure of dependence on these reason hospital people have to rush Dehradun for better health. These all condition and circumstances impede villagers to permanently settle in villages. They also migrate for the better health because their appointments with doctors waiting fare in Dehradun or Rishikesh.

 

3. Employment Migration:

 

Employment is another pertinent toll to curb out migration. While investigating it was observed that number of household either dependent on the agriculture or grace of MGNREGA guarantee employment scheme. It has been observed that all the Gram Pradhans (excluding one of them) are playing thick money making game while generating employment of the villagers. Pradhans fails to provide employment more than 20 days and that to without any wages for their work. The number of villagers has dependency to the private contraction happing in their village or in the native villages because process of wages payment in MGNREGA is too late and complex every blog officer blame for payment incompetency to some other officer (senior or junior designation). Not even private construction but also government guaranteed employment scheme does not have consistency in work and wages, due to which villagers have to move out from their town and district to the search of better work and greater possibility. This further ignites the migration of villagers.

 

4. Agricultural Migration:

 

The majority of villagers are proletariat and regularly do farming in every seasons, not for selling their agric products but for their self consumption because majority of population had to dependent on the government rationing. This is because due to flash floods, hail stormed, landslides and wild animals, villagers had to lose their fertile land which was eroded by these natural calamities every years and still getting eroded, this has actually reduce the number of percentage of land holding of the villagers, those who used to plunge their own field now have to dependent on others land and working with them not for wages but for a small share of the ration.

 

5. Natural Calamities Migration:

 

One the village called Naugaun in Bhattwadi district is affected by the most frequent natural calamities every year and even twice in the rainy season. The mountain above this village usually drags down deluge and not only damages human shelters but drags away their cattle’s like cow and goats.  Many of the Pradhan likewise this village have told that due to these natural threats many of the villagers have left their heritable properties and migrated to some other low land areas. This is another field and effective cause letting migration.

 

6. Infrastructure Migration:

 

There are still many villages which lacks amount of proper infra for the development of the villages. The most pertinent thing to connect the villages is road connectivity. It has been observed that, many villages are do not come inside purview any connectivity of roads due to which it becomes very difficult for the authorities  to have constant linkage for the village at time of  emergencies like medical evacuation, pregnant women and another assistance like necessary life supporting commodities. Due to lack of road connectivity villagers decided to migrate to other parts of district here they can have proper road connectivity.

 

Table 2

Use of remittances % households
   
Basic consumption need 91.8
Education of children 60.1
Health care 64.3
Payments for labour and other costs relating to agriculture 12.2
Repair of house 8.2
Purchase of consumer durables 2.0
Payments of loans 3.1
Purchase of land 2.0
Source: Maingai Report   

 

 

 

 

Suggestions to tackle Migration through Agriculture

From last 21 day I have taken various interviews of Gram Pradhan and Villagers majority of villagers are mainly proletariat, but ironically maximum of them dependent on government rationing, In my opinion Uttarakhand not endure similar pattern and impacts factor  causing migration, but every reason beset by its own impinging effect of migration. There are numerous ways through which out migration can be tackled, like building infra and other facility but Uttarakhand government does not understanding the very imperative realm of migration and that is Agriculture of state. The pragmatic notion as fellow:

  1. Negligence’s towards agricultural sector:

Let me tell you Uttarakhand agric product have slew demand in other state of India due to its purity, taste and quality like Potatoes, Tomatoes, Rice, Brown Floor(manduwa), Pulses (Rajma)  including many medicines plants which cannot grow in other parts of India. There are cases found in many cities where various agric product are been sold by the name of Garhwal Brand. Therefore authority should only focus on improving and taking into account lack of infra availability, the main root cause of out migration is employment that is true, authority will have construct some policies towards employment through agricultural which used to prevail earlier.

 

2.Lack of cold Storage:

Agric product also suffer from the limitation of proper storing facility, Uttarakhand(UKD) have immense diversity of its weather, UKD have numerous amount of landslides accruing in every now and then mainly during monsoon season same times when farmers have bonanza of crops, but the problem arises how to store (cold storage).To get rid of loses farmer  have to supply their product as soon as possible to plane areas of UKD but due to bad weather and heavy landslides trucks usually struck in various parts of UKD hills impacting profit margin of the farmer income.

3. Least co-operation between farmer and Forest department:

It has been mention by the every single villager as well farmer that more than 70 to 80% of  their crops has been destroyed by the wild animals like Blue bull, Pork, Wild Bear, Monkeys and other animals. But farmer do not have any right to kill any of these wild animals if happens they have to levy with heavy monetary penalty punishment by the forest department.

4. Preservation by Forest Department:

Incubation of wrong trees may have cascading affect, UKD forests have bonanza of Cedrus (deodar)trees,  his qualities are, it do not holds soil erosion (which infuse landslides), it ignites forest fire during summer, do not provide any fruits, its roots do not holds water but ironically forest departments preserve it. Himachal is known for this apples orchards when why can than why not UKD both endure almost akin scale of weather conditions, Himachal understands its revenue coffer through agric products (it orchards)

Know it is very favourable time for UKD government to improvise its Agric policy. Government can implement co-operate farming through which government can allot a certain area of forest to every family of farmers and aid them to grow some fruit trees which will start giving return in coming three year, but this is not possible without co-operation of forest department because despite of been Women like Gaura Devi who had started Chipko Movement in 1987, propagated that forests are same like their own family today these forest have been snatched way by the government. The Government should re allot some forest land to every family for only fruits trees farming and lease them land for more than 20 year with renewal of licences because villagers will never do trees farming in fertile land that to they have very less which usually eroded in every monsoon.

5. Tackle wild animals:

The Plantation of fruit trees will also have cascading effect on the advent of wild animals. This is because animals only attracted towards farmers crop is due to reduction in the amount of food available in the jungle but with the plantation of fruit trees in jungles will not only quench their hungriness but also preserve farmer’s crops due to fulfilment of their food needs.

Conclusion:

My all the opinion is fully based on the various interviews and some of the research papers on migration mentioned on the references. I strongly advocate my opinion if UKD government have to tackle with migration it have to focus on its agric policy which absolute in hills, the only way through which migration can be halt is through attain self financial reliance and right policy with its ground implementation.

 

 

References

  1. Rajendra P. Mamgain and D.N. Reddy, OUTMIGRATION FROM HILL REGION OF UTTARAKHAND: Magnitude, Challenges and Policy Options in 2014.
  2. Proliferating Migration of Uttarakhand’s Youth – Reasons, Remedies and RecommendationsUniversity Of Petroleum and Energy Studies,  Author Guid, Dr Vickram Sahai Associate Professor Dr Rati Oberoi Assistant Professor.

 

Author Peeyush Bharadwaj and Mohit Pande

 

 

 

It’s called revers migration.

Taken from our blog,”Brink of economic Thought”

https://wordpress.com/post/harshmohit.wordpress.com/136

 

It’s called revers migration.

 

From last and more than 25 days I was traveling with TISS on the project called human trafficking in Uttarkashi Block. Therefore I have a short note on the sorrow state of Uttrakhand hills.

Today’s Uttrakhand faces euphoric concept called Migration. We usually keep on listening debates on news channels about Uttrakhand Migration and politician waffling about how to curb Migration. While retrograding my Professor opinion on both side migrations accruing our state, Uttrakhand is on serious call to applaud devil and descent with serenity. My last 22 days visit to Uttrakashi District for field survey left with some of intriguing issues and facts about future of Uttrakhandies. Well its so astonishing that neither a state  or centre government do not pondering in this direction either have any policies to curb the situation, on the serious note Uttrakhand is glittering on the hand of mafia’s and human traders. Here is the small report.

1. Seven out of four households had sold their girls to Haryana, Delhi, Hyderabad, Rorkee, Dehradun, Punjab and Uttra Pradesh due to incompetency of their financial stability.

2. Entire village children’s imbued in local drugs and selling it with the aid of taxi drivers and local dealers.

3. Majority of farmers had lost their fertile land due to landslides and flash floods. Farmer had to dependent of government rationing.

4. MGNREGA complete fiasco and amnesty.

5. Upward migration by Muslims, Biharies, Jatts, Nepalese, Bangladeshis and some individuals without identification.

6. Bride trafficking to Haryana, Delhi, Hyderabad, Punjab and Uttra Pradesh due to incompetency of financial stability and developed a network to foster bride trafficking.

7. Majority of people owing properties from different states.

8. MLA’s are involved in Girls Trafficking.

9. Children’s after completing their 12th working in hotels and restaurants in different parts of country.

10. Still bondage labour.

It usually impinged me from inside, why Uttrakhand seceded from Uttra Pradesh what was the reasons.

In this report I have tried to collect every facet of truth and also have detailed report some coming.

Mohit Pandey

Doon University.

Dehradun.Uttarakhand

 

 

Trumps Tax rate cut Plan

Taken from our blog,”Brink of economic thought”

 

It has been nearly half year since the time when US presidential election produced one of surprising results. Since then we have seen many steps taken by elected president Trump. As of lately the geo political analysts are looking into the events transpiring within and around Korean peninsula and how would they impact the global situation. In these times within US president Trump has also made his intention clear about his promise to cut taxes and simplify the tax codes.

This was one of his promises which he pledged during his election campaign. How is it so that anything or even a minutest happening on the US economy makes such a big headlines? Given the context that US is the largest economy in the world, nearly 19 tn $, it is very natural that events there will be creating impact globally.

The proposed plan intends to fulfill various targets. This has been categorically remarked that objectives are to grow the economy and create millions of jobs. Tax deduction is expected to enhance the investment in major sectors of economy. Aim is also to lower the corporate tax rates from current highest in the world to the lowest in the world.

 

It is being considered as one of the most significant tax reform witnessed in US since 1986.There are certain steps which will be taken for individual reforms and business reforms and this will be discussed a little bit in the analysis.

Individual tax reforms

The plan proposes tax relief for American families and the ones which are middle income families by reducing the 7 tax brackets to mere 3 brackets of 10%, 25% and 35 %.Doubling the standard deduction.

There has been further simplification proposed by repealing of alternate minimal tax and repealing of death tax.

Business reforms

Among the list of business reforms few are 15 % business tax rates.

Territorial tax rates to level the playing field for American companies.

Elimination of tax breaks for special interest.

 

Trump is now planning to fully exempt the companies that are earning from overseas. It seems that administration’s measures to cut the tax rates will eventually increase the fiscal deficit. This has been one of the concerns which have been raised by many of analysts and economists about the situation that with already ballooning fiscal deficit this step may further widen the gap between revenues generates and expenses occurring.

However it will also to be watched as major portion of the plan if executed properly will be boosting economic output and creating more jobs.

There is an   observation made in pure economic terms that federal government has to borrow more money, while private entities have more money to invest.

Society actually ends up borrowing money at 1 to 2 percent and may be receiving 5 to 10 percent in return. That is a always a possibility  that society is going to receive a net gain, not bearing economic cost.

In total terms the deal appears more favorable than it may look at first. The new investment will not only create jobs but also some products for which the beneficiaries will not only be some peoples or wealthy peoples in the society but every section of the society.

Keynesian economics of demand side emphasis and huge governmental spending had defined many arguments in the last century. Those ideas which were conceptualized not only paved way for overcoming the depression of 1930s but also provided a unique direction to economic thinking , ideas and governmental policy formulation.

Now we find here that major of these investments will be done by corporate players. Rate of return on private investment is higher due to individual’s interest involved as compared to the federal government spending.

Now for the coming months this is to be seen that how will US president move with the plan in the congress. There is also one of the suspicions raised that too much personal income will be converted to business forms to reap the benefits of lower tax rates.

However Optimistic version of the move can be that this move will be beneficial in the long run and will be providing  boost to the economy.

 

 

Harsh Vardhan Pathak

 

Donald Trumps’ tax rate cut plan.- A short analysis.

S CHAND IPO –A short review

Taken from our blog,”Brink of economic thoughts”

S CHAND IPO –A short review

 

One of the most significant and pioneers of book publications in India, S.Chand will now be getting enlisted into the NSE/BSE exchanges.S Chand has held a highly prominent space in the Indian publishing industry. The book building issue, initiated with a price band of Rs 660-670, aims to raise Rs 717-728 crore.Amidst the reasons which have been mentioned for going public have been

 

  1. Repayment of loans availed by the Company and one of their Subsidiaries, EPHL, which were utilized towards funding the acquisition of Chhaya;
    2. Repayment/prepayment in full or in part, of certain loans availed of by the Company and their Subsidiaries, VPHPL and NSHPL; and
    3. General corporate purpose.

S Chand  started operating since 1970 and develops content in education K12,{1-12TH grade education, a term derived from USA}.

 

Company has been involved into publishing books for children, schools, colleges, and universities, export, and import of various school curriculum books and other literary work; also selling digital content and interactive learning systems to schools and running pre-schools.

The company has continued to  provide digital data management services and digital content books to schools and colleges; solutions for higher education in colleges, universities, and technical institutes editing and proof reading, and cover designing services of books, journals, tabloids, magazines, bulletins, brochures, and periodicals in the form of hard copy, compact disks, and e-forms.

S Chand And Company Ltd offers in around 53 consumer brands across knowledge products and all of the services include S.chand, Vikas, Madhubun, Saraswati, Destination Success and Ignitor.

Amidst the strategy to further diversify the company’s profile and operating area with broadening of the existing customer base the company has been also exporting its printed and digital content to Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally.

S Chand has benefitted majorly as of the booming education sector of India. The company has had very strong presence in the ISCE/CBSE school curriculum.

 

The initial public offering of textbook publisher did see solid investor demand as it was oversubscribed 59.28 times on the last day of offer. It was one of higher rate of oversubscription. The IPO received bids for 45, 56, 00,794 shares against the total issue size of 76, 85,284 shares,

JM financial securities,Axis Capital and Credit Suisse securities were the lead promoters of the issue.

Interesting will be to see the response received when the issue goes for trading on NSE/BSE floors from the market players. Such a huge subscription clearly shows that the issue has been considered promising and has been widely welcomed .

 

Harsh Vardhan Pathak

 

 

{S Chand has been one of leading school book curriculum provider in India. It has enlisted for being public and 26th-28th April had been the date when the IPO was to  be subscribed. This short review looks into the 3 days of it getting enlisted, a little study of peer and evaluations and subscription data. The review has been prepared by study of various online reports/news websites/capital markets reviews generating websites and review generated within last few days about the IPO.}

Will French elections decide European Union future

Taken from our blog,”Brink of economic thoughts”

Will French elections decide European Union future

 

  • France is finally ready to grape its presidency, It advents towards its 2017 General Elections, with its two final charismatic candidates Macron and Pen. It will be very early to elucidate whether the essence of election will decide European Union integration with France, but down the line both the candidates fighting fiercely in their ongoing campaign are competing on the issue related towards central debate in France for last many years such as (illegal immigrants, anti Semitism, job creation, freedom from monetary union and autonomy for controlling nation borders).It has been observed in disintegration of Great Britain from EU, Illegal immigrants and unemployment had played a significant roll seceding from EU, so no wonder Frexit. Republican Francois Fillon conceded within less than an hour of polls closing after placing third with a projected 19.9 percent, while Socialist Benoit Hamon trailed in fifth place with just 6.4 percent. Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon was at 19.6 percent and refused to concede. On seventh of May 2017 France will get its newly elected President in office it will be either of Marine Le Pen or Emmanuel Macron we will be witnessing soon.
    Macron as pro businessmen:
    Macron enjoys legacy of investment banker, also severed as economic advisor with Franci Hollan regime, jeopardising entire businessmen across Europe and within France. According to Bloomberg entire lobby of investment banker’s proponent raising toast for Macron victory. From very begging, while presidential debate Macron has elucidated his vision for France masses, which can be ramify as following:
    1. If Macron wins promises to save businesses and corporate houses across the France soil, there are many businessmen who presently working in entire Europe, Macron already advocated EU integration and its dirigisme.
    2. Secondly Macron also advocated for single visa and work permits for European people.
    3. Brussels has come out openly supporting Macron.
    4. Integration with entire Europe or single market, free trade and free flow of labours supply will create more demand boosting more employment and revival of economy accord Macron.
    5. After the first round of election, Macron stayed at first position by defeating Le Pen, euro has shown strong signal and appreciated, this clearly showing optimism of various investors in Macron.
  • Marine Le Pen as anti immigrants
    Le Pen is perceived as a dynamic personality akin as of her father as both of them belong to far most rightist group, Le Pen also known for improving her father and his party radical image several times but last day of election will determine whether she succeeds or not for the elevated office. As contrast to Macron policies as for wider vision for France President elect Pen has also elucidated her stand on reluctance towards EU, freedom from monetary union, autonomy towards securing their borders, increasing taxes on foreign workers, halting immigration from entire Europe.
    Her vision can be ramify in following reasons.
    1. Le Pen fighting election on issue of illegal immigrants across from Europe and from rest of the world in her presidential speech she have mentioned several time to abandon Europe from immigrants .
    2. Pen also prepared to tax foreign workers more as compare to France workers; basically advocating rational being towards securing French workers, providing them priority before having it to foreign hands.
    3. As the part of EU France is also part of monetary union though (UK was not) being part of monetary union EU central bank have all the autonomy to tinker with all the bank rate, credit supply, financial decision, fund allotment to various investment projects, International treaties with different nations including, taxation autonomy depends with EU central bank dirigisme. As according to her promise if she becomes successful, it will be France to control its central bank thought which can be only possible in occurrence of Frexit.
    4. Simple Labour law can Boost economic growth, according to Le Pen promise its is pertinent to improve labour laws, basically France worker are authorised to work for 35 hours a week, but many firms refusing to pay wages if they working more. Increase in working hours should also increase incentives of works which will further impinge economic growth, along with increment in investment on training programs and education accord Le Pen.
  • According to (Snap Ipsos Survey) Macron is way ahead from Le Pen, but incidents like Brexit, US election result have already failed all the predictions in past. As anti immigrants policy Le Pen may face problem while persuading minorities population, there are more than 10 per cent of Muslim population living in France who will definitely remain reluctant for Pen. Therefore Pen may acquire votes from rest of the 88per cent of population which are Catholic as Le Pen. Her anti immigration policy may impress rest 88 per cent population as though happen in America with coming to power of U S President Donald Trump.

 

Mohit Pandey
M.S.C Economics
mohit.doon98@gmail.com

Debt markets in East Asian economies in 2016

Taken from our blog,”Brinks of economic thought”

Debt markets in East Asian economies in 2016

 

A short note study of Diversion in bond yields amidst global uncertainty.

 

Bond yields grew in advanced economies while they did not grow significantly in the developing economies. This had been evident from US Federal Reserve’s moves that it will continue its monetary policy normalisation. With the stable inflation rate under control coupled with encouraging employment figures for past continuous 40 + weeks, Fed increased its policy rates.

Despite the one way trend witnessed in the entire regional East Asian markets, one of the economies stood as an notable exception, China, where the 2 year and 10 year yield rose.

 

There are many uncertainties related to global factors which could impact the regions bonds markets.

  • The possible steps of policy rate hikes which will be taken by US Federal Reserve.
  • Deep rooted upcoming uncertainties being getting visible in the Euro region.
  • Depreciation of the Chinese Yuan, which may impact the growth prospect in the region.

The entire bond market of the East Asian region stood at around 10,000 USD, for which China accounted for nearly 70 % of them.

Out of these figures the government bonds dominated the major portion while accounting for nearly 65 %, while the private bonds stood for nearly 35 % on the total bond markets.

Asian markets had been consistently getting affected by the events that happened in 2016 in the world. One among the major was the UK exit from European Union. Then Italian referendum on the constitutional reforms was also a major event. Even this year general and presidential elections in Netherlands, France and Germany will decide the flow of capital from and within the emerging economies.

Any kind of uncertainty in the euro zone will increase the demand for safe heaven assets like heavy metals and highly rated sovereign bonds.

One of the most debated currencies in global economics, Chinese RMB Yuan, has also significantly depreciated in last 12 months. We have also seen the Chinese foreign exchange reserves have depleted, although they still are the largest in the world. China had invested heavily into the US treasury bonds, although gaining low returns, but enabling it to manipulate the currency and thus having high export surplus. This also enabled China to have the largest foreign exchange reserves.

Any kind of depletion in the RMB poses serious threat and risk to the potential stability of the markets in the region. It also poses challenge to the economic stability of the PRC in the region.

There is a significant risk that any further depreciation of RMB will result into the widening of US bilateral trade deficit with China, which could lead to change in the trade policy of US. Throughout 2016 People’s bank of China intervened heavily into the time when Yuan depreciated consistently by utilising its foreign exchange reserves.

The next and significant debt market in the region was of South Korea with outstanding bonds which stood at around 1700 USD.For Thailand the entire market stood at 303 USD.

When we make a study of market like Malaysia, we have to also keep in mind the role which Sukuk {Islamic bond} has played in the entire debts markets. It is one of the largest emerging Islamic debt markets in the East Asian region.

Share of the foreign holdings declined in East Asian markets in 2016 due to various factors. One being the uncertainty revolving around the US rate hikes and another being the strengthening of US dollar.

There were many interesting observations to be witnessed for the year. For example; The AAA-rated corporate yield versus government yield spread fell in the PRC and the Republic of Korea, but rose in Malaysia.

 

Policy and regulatory developments in East Asian Markets.

 

In December, the People’s Bank of China lowered the threshold—from CNY200, 000 to CNY50, 000—at which banks must notify the central bank of any domestic deposit, withdrawal, or transfer.

In February, the People’s Republic of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that it would allow foreign institutions investing in the People’s Republic of China’s interbank bond market to purchase currency forwards, currency swaps, cross-currency swaps, and currency options.

In January, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised the countercyclical capital buffer requirement for banks from 1.25% to 1.875% as part of its implementation of Basel III.

In November, the Ministry of Finance announced that it would continue its frontloading policy for the issuance of government bonds in 2017.

Bank Indonesia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), and the Bank of Thailand (BOT) signed two memoranda of understanding in December to promote the settlement of cross-border trade and direct investment in their respective local currencies.

In November, the Financial Services Commission announced measures to further develop the Republic of Korea’s derivatives markets, including the simplification of the listing procedures and diversification of derivatives that can be issued in the exchange-traded derivatives market and increased flexibility in the requirements for investors.

In November, BNM moved to discourage trading of Malaysian ringgit in the no deliverable forward (NDF) market. The central bank sees it as speculative activity that can potentially destabilize the Malaysian ringgit.

The Government of the Philippines plans to borrow PHP631.3 billion in 2017 to support its expenditures and loan payments.

Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission introduced a measure, effective 16 January, limiting intermediary holdings to one third for every new issuance of unrated debt securities falling below investment grade.

 

 

Harsh Vardhan Pathak

Green bonds markets in 2016

Taken from blog,”Brink of economic thoughts”

Green bonds markets in 2016

 

This Short note describes the emergence of a market for green bonds and examines how the market has worked in 2016,also a little focus has been made on the things which are to be looked for in 2017

 

Entities in today’s financial markets raise capital in 2 ways –Stocks and Bonds. Stocks are a kind of ownership while bond is a way of debt financing .It is interesting to make a comparison between both methods of financing as both markets have unique characteristics confined to them. Although when we make a comparison between the sizes of both markets we find that debt market is very large as compared to equity market.

A bond is a form of debt security. A debt security is a legal contract for money owed that can be bought and sold between parties.

Green bond is a debt security that is issued to raise capital specifically to support climate related or environmental projects. This methodology of debt financing is something which is a decade older and a newly conceptualised terminology since 2009 United Nations Climate Change conference held at Copenhegan.The 2009 Summit resulted into a mutual consensus reached among the participating members about how a mechanism has to be evolved to enhance investment in the coming decades to address concerns about the issues of climate change.

In principle it was also concluded that nations especially the developing ones will need a significant assistance to meet the challenges .Copenhagen accord concluded broad commitments about the scale of financial assistance that developed nations will provide to the developing nations. It was indeed essential as it was going to be difficult for the developing nations on their own to finance the technology needed for dealing with the climatic issues.

The Copenhagen Accord envisaged annual financing for developing countries (from both official and private sources) rising to around $100 billion per year by 2020, in support of strong policy actions by  countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

 

China was able to issue 255 billion Yuan (US$36.9bn) worth of green bonds in 2016, thus dominating the global market in climate-friendly infrastructure investment. This follows an increasing awareness of environmental issues in China which has been followed through to policy and financial decision-making.

The entire figures of 2016 green bond markets are also an encouraging sign of growth when compared from the previous year’s figures.2016 was also the largest year by far in terms of total growth witnessed, whether in the category of bonds issued, or issuer types, or the ratings or even the use of proceeds .Market has also been highly innovative by showing new types of bonds issued: Green covered bonds (which has a dual recourse structure), the first green residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS) from Obvion and the first Green Schuldschein (Nordex).

 

As cities are  looking forward  to play a role in country NDCs, Green bonds have attained a significant place amidst an increasingly viable form of finance with issuance from cities and municipalities growing from just USD4bn in 2014 (10%) to USD10.5bn (13%) in 2016. Whereas  US municipalities continue to dominate the sub-sovereign space, green municipal and city bonds have come from all around the world, including Mexico{Latin American states, Sweden and Australia. Nordic municipality debt aggregators were important players, enabling small municipalities’ access to low-cost capital through the bond market despite their small size.

 

For the year2016, green bonds use of proceeds was more equally split between the 7 sectors, showing the process of maturing of the markets. The largest category remained Energy (a total of USD31bn investment in 2016), although its share got declined from 52% in 2015 to 38% in 2016. Conversely, investment in Water grew from 9% to 14%. Both Transport and Buildings & Industry increased their share by 2%.

 

 

This can be considered as a welcome indication that the green transition is taking place all across the sectors.

Poland issued its debut green sovereign bond of EUR750m in December 2016 .France has already issued an impressive EUR7bn green sovereign bond in January 2017 .There are also plans for green sovereign bonds from Morocco and Nigeria. As governments seek to implement Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), sovereign green bonds are a logical financing option.

We have seen new players coming to the market from Poland, Costa Rica (Banco Nacional de Costa Rica), Philippines (AP Renewable), Morocco (MASEN, BMCE Bank), Colombia (Bancolombia), Latvia (Latvenergo), Brazil (Suzano), Mexico (Mexico City Airport Trust, Mexico City, Nacional Financiera), India (Axis Bank, Greenko, Hero Future Energy, NTPC, PNB Housing Finance, Renew Power) and of course, China.

In our neighbour China has shown remarkable increase since 2015 when clean energy company Goldwind released the country’s first green bond in July 2015.

China Central Depository and Clearing Company {CCDC}, which is a state, owned financial institution has come up with figures which do show a top level of sustainable financial push.

China as an economy grew very fast over last few decades. Its growth story enabled it to also amass one of the largest foreign exchange reserves on the planet .But the growth narrative also had one another side to witness. After Decade wise back to back rapid coal –fuelled development, China is facing issues such as food insecurity.

 

Setting up of international parameters has been under constant development since inception of the term “green bond “since 2007.But in a way it has assured the investors that the money which is being invested in the projects is going for an environmentally beneficial purpose and assures positive return also.

 

As one of the significant contributors to the UN climate deal, Beijing has committed itself to reduce carbon intensity (greenhouse gas emissions for each unit of GDP growth) 60-65% by 2030 from 2005 levels.

The People’s Bank of China, the central bank of China has estimated that between 2 and 4 trillion Yuan ($320-640bn) of investment is needed annually to clean up the economy.

Chief economist of People Bank Of China,Ma Jun said: “This report shows that the green bond market has had a strong start in China, now the world’s largest green bond market. Green bonds already make up 2% of Chinese bonds; whereas globally the figure is less than 0.2%.But the potential is tenfold, because 20% of investments in China need to be green to meet our national objectives. So we expect the green bond market to continue to have very strong growth.”

Many prominent economists have expressed their belief that development of green bond markets could help in mobilisation of private funds into green projects, thus helping in dealing with climate challenges and environmental issues.

Last year in July 2016, New Development Bank had successfully reported about the issuance of bank’s first green financial bond with a total size of worth RMB 3 billion. The bank had thus become the first international financial institution which issued a green financial bond in Chinese onshore bond market.

Overall climate issues made the concern in 2016 and the situation remains very grim. But on the front of green bonds and climate affairs, it can be summarised that green bond market remain very progressive and fluent in 2016.

The year 2017 may witness many more issuers from lower rating band coming to the markets as government are trying to mobilise more liquidity and support in the market and we are witnessing over subscription in the markets.

 

 

 

Harsh Vardhan Pathak

References; Various online sources. Climate change issues related websites. Bloomberg.

New Development Bank-Its Indian projects

Taken from our blog,”Brink of economic thoughts”

New Development Bank-Its Indian projects

 

New Development bank was in news last week as of the approved projects in Indian state of Madhya Pradesh for infrastructure projects, to be exact about the district road up gradation projects. Just recently  New Development bank ,{which is a collective step of BRICS nation and has headquarters at Shanghai,China}and Government of India signed an agreement of loan provision for financing road up gradation worth 350 US $ in Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. This is going to be the first such project which is going to be financed by this new BRICS initiated financial institution in India. It holds very much significance for a nation like India since; we are also one among the founding members of the financial institution. Among the concerns which are raised about some form of competition among the NDB and various older institution existing like World Bank, IMF, or even upcoming institutions. This is a great development-centric declaration and move. Since its start various bodies have shown willingness to work with BRICS conceptualized bank. Obvious reasons indicate a fact that a population which is significant on planet cannot be neglected which is one among the fastest developing population Bloc.

This was one among the objectives of the formation of this new BRICS bank which was established in July 2014 .It had been one among the brainchild of BRICS leadership .It had been largely felt to have a need to a new financial group which could look after the capital needs of the BRICS nation and also generate the funds for infrastructure related projects.

 

Main objectives of the New development bank can be categorically summarized as to promote socially and environmentally sustainable projects ,{like way of issuance of green bonds} and also to enhance a multilateral collaboration with different global bodies in terms of generating projects which are fulfilling the requirements and providing growth momentum to the member countries.

 

We have seen till now the main  focus of NDB has been towards green financing. We also need to have  clarity about what exactly are green bonds and what significance do they hold in modern global economy, along with the challenges also posed in front of them.

Green Bonds are instruments in which the proceeds will be exclusively applied (either by specifying Use of Proceeds, Direct Project Exposure, or Securitization) towards new and existing Green Projects – defined here as projects and activities that promote climate or other environmental sustainability purposes.

There are 4 types of Green bonds

 

1-Green Use of Proceeds Bond

2-Green Use of Proceeds Revenue Bond

3-Green Project Bond

4-Green Securitized Bond.

 

 

New Development Bank has shown the interest in development of projects related to highways. Railways etc and funded promoting highest environment sustainability concern.

 

As of now the NDB has approved major 7 major projects in all the member nations.

 

In July 2016, NDB had successfully reported about issuance of bank’s first green financial bond with issue size of RMB 3 billion. The bond’s nominal interest rate stood at 3.07%. The bank became the first international financial institution that issued a green financial bond in the China onshore bond market.

 

 

Even in Indian markets, NDB plans to raise around 500 mn US $ via use of Masala Bonds {rupee denominated bonds}.Masala bond is a term used to refer to a financial instrument through which Indian entities can raise money from overseas markets in the rupee, not foreign currency. Indian spices have been popular all over the world since ancient times.  ‘Masala’ bonds reflect the Indian angle to it.

 

In other words, they are rupee-denominated bonds issued to overseas buyers. This is how it is different from other instruments.  Before Masala bonds, corporate had to depend on avenues such as External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs).

By issuing bonds in rupees, an Indian entity is shielded against the risk of currency fluctuation, typically associated with borrowing in foreign currency. 

The first masala bonds were issued by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), an arm of the World Bank, in the year 2013. Similar offerings from other countries have also been after the food or culture of that country like “dim sum” label for Chinese offshore issues or “Samurai” bonds for Japanese offshore issues.

 IFC was established in 1956 and owned by 184 member countries

As masala bonds are denominated in rupees, foreign investors will be taking the currency risk. So the key for the success of these bonds will be a stable exchange rate. Masala bonds are the first rupee bonds listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Owing to the needs which nation like Indian has had and vast diversities witnessed within our geographical stretches, we have to find the partners for our developing stories of our time. It will also be interesting to see the way in which NDB will later takes its shape in running profitable projects and also at same time addressing challenges faced.

 

 

HARSH VARDHAN PATHAK

 

email—–harshvardhanpathak88@gmail.com

US pulling out of Trans Pacific Partnership {TPP}

Taken from our blog,”Brinks of economic thoughts”

US pulling out of Trans Pacific Partnership {TPP}

 

{US has been witnessing many efforts to make changes in policies adopted during the time of Obama’s president ship. Obama had come up with Obamacare, an affordable health care act, which was intended to benefit nearly 25 million Americans. On Friday although Donald Trump did not succeed in removal, but he has been trying to alter the previous regimes policies. I am in this article trying to make a short note about USA’ s pulling from Trans Pacific Partnership}
US president Donald Trump had signed executive orders to pull out formally from negotiations for the process of Trans-Pacific Partnership. Had USA not pulled out of TPP trade deal, it would have been the world’s largest such deal in history. Protectionism can be argued. In a world which is now interrelated due to complex ties at economic and political level. Any of major or even minute steps do have their sets of repercussions. Globally we are seeing rise in sentiments, about ensuring that none of new steps must affect the benefits of local population.UK surprise exit from EURO union, or even Trump electoral win are an indication of rising dissatisfaction among the masses as of neo liberal policies which they seem to have affected their interest.

 

TPP was one among the major international trade initiatives taken by earlier US president Barrack Obama, so as to set new rules for trade in 21st century and bind the allies together to curtail the growing Chinese regional economic dominance.

It took nearly 5 years of series of thorough negotiations and discussions after which, TPP was signed by trade representatives in Feb 2016.But it had to be ratified by all of the individual countries.

TPP was conceived as an effective trade pact among the 12 pacific RIM nations,US,Japan,Malaysia,Vietnam,Singapore,Brunei,Australia,New Zealand,Canada,Mexico,Chile, and Peru. It was historically one among the most trend changing possible trade deals which could have been arrived at.

It intended to clearly slash the tariffs on most goods traded between countries which were participating in the deal. One of the interesting figures was that these nations are home for nearly 800 mn peoples, and also accounting for nearly 40 % of world’s trade. Ideally it could have created one unified market like EU.

While during the election campaign for US president ship in 2016, Trump had repeatedly referred to TPP as a “job killer” and a potential disaster” for the country. He had pointed it in one of his videos of US pulling out the moment he enters into the office. Trump had been contesting election on grounds of benefitting the nation’s economy, bringing jobs to USA.Many critics of the deal pointed to it “seeking fairer negotiations”.

 

It would have set new terms for trade and business investments among the nations, whose annual GDP stood as high as nearly 30 tn $.It also aimed to curtail the growing influence of China in the entire region. One of the independent studies conducted by a research think tank concluded that, Brack Obama wished to establish the “gold standard” of rules of the 21st Century. But it also had one shortcoming, as would have definitely resulted into increased US exports and imports, but not enhancements in US job figures.

China was also reluctant and very cautious of the development taking place. Had the deal come into practise, it would have straightway removed tariffs in full range of cases.Eg Japanese carmakers like Toyota, Nissan and Honda would have got cheaper access to US, one of their biggest export markets. Same way US vehicle exports would have found new markets if tariffs of close up to 70 % were slashed in countries like Vietnam and Malaysia, US farmers and poultry firms stood all chances to benefit, so did Vietnamese textiles goods.

There was immense discontent back in Trumps own constituency, TPP was looked as a reason for further job losses or stagnant wages, with many people already having discontent due to globalisation and trade agreements .

China looked up to TPP as a very suspicious move. It viewed it as a ploy by US to tighten its control over the region. Chinese media had sharply criticised the deal as “economic arm of US‘s geopolitical strategy to make sure that Washington rules supreme in the region”.

Many nations although still insist that they will move ahead even in absence of USA.

Same way we had seen Trump making comments about the H1B Visa program, which was used widely to hire cheap technology workers, who was widely believed to be taking jobs from US work force.

Any case, despite after USA pulling, the TPP cannot still be written off as nations still are willing to participate in it.

 

Harsh Vardhan Pathak