Will French elections decide European Union future

Taken from our blog,”Brink of economic thoughts”

Will French elections decide European Union future

 

  • France is finally ready to grape its presidency, It advents towards its 2017 General Elections, with its two final charismatic candidates Macron and Pen. It will be very early to elucidate whether the essence of election will decide European Union integration with France, but down the line both the candidates fighting fiercely in their ongoing campaign are competing on the issue related towards central debate in France for last many years such as (illegal immigrants, anti Semitism, job creation, freedom from monetary union and autonomy for controlling nation borders).It has been observed in disintegration of Great Britain from EU, Illegal immigrants and unemployment had played a significant roll seceding from EU, so no wonder Frexit. Republican Francois Fillon conceded within less than an hour of polls closing after placing third with a projected 19.9 percent, while Socialist Benoit Hamon trailed in fifth place with just 6.4 percent. Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon was at 19.6 percent and refused to concede. On seventh of May 2017 France will get its newly elected President in office it will be either of Marine Le Pen or Emmanuel Macron we will be witnessing soon.
    Macron as pro businessmen:
    Macron enjoys legacy of investment banker, also severed as economic advisor with Franci Hollan regime, jeopardising entire businessmen across Europe and within France. According to Bloomberg entire lobby of investment banker’s proponent raising toast for Macron victory. From very begging, while presidential debate Macron has elucidated his vision for France masses, which can be ramify as following:
    1. If Macron wins promises to save businesses and corporate houses across the France soil, there are many businessmen who presently working in entire Europe, Macron already advocated EU integration and its dirigisme.
    2. Secondly Macron also advocated for single visa and work permits for European people.
    3. Brussels has come out openly supporting Macron.
    4. Integration with entire Europe or single market, free trade and free flow of labours supply will create more demand boosting more employment and revival of economy accord Macron.
    5. After the first round of election, Macron stayed at first position by defeating Le Pen, euro has shown strong signal and appreciated, this clearly showing optimism of various investors in Macron.
  • Marine Le Pen as anti immigrants
    Le Pen is perceived as a dynamic personality akin as of her father as both of them belong to far most rightist group, Le Pen also known for improving her father and his party radical image several times but last day of election will determine whether she succeeds or not for the elevated office. As contrast to Macron policies as for wider vision for France President elect Pen has also elucidated her stand on reluctance towards EU, freedom from monetary union, autonomy towards securing their borders, increasing taxes on foreign workers, halting immigration from entire Europe.
    Her vision can be ramify in following reasons.
    1. Le Pen fighting election on issue of illegal immigrants across from Europe and from rest of the world in her presidential speech she have mentioned several time to abandon Europe from immigrants .
    2. Pen also prepared to tax foreign workers more as compare to France workers; basically advocating rational being towards securing French workers, providing them priority before having it to foreign hands.
    3. As the part of EU France is also part of monetary union though (UK was not) being part of monetary union EU central bank have all the autonomy to tinker with all the bank rate, credit supply, financial decision, fund allotment to various investment projects, International treaties with different nations including, taxation autonomy depends with EU central bank dirigisme. As according to her promise if she becomes successful, it will be France to control its central bank thought which can be only possible in occurrence of Frexit.
    4. Simple Labour law can Boost economic growth, according to Le Pen promise its is pertinent to improve labour laws, basically France worker are authorised to work for 35 hours a week, but many firms refusing to pay wages if they working more. Increase in working hours should also increase incentives of works which will further impinge economic growth, along with increment in investment on training programs and education accord Le Pen.
  • According to (Snap Ipsos Survey) Macron is way ahead from Le Pen, but incidents like Brexit, US election result have already failed all the predictions in past. As anti immigrants policy Le Pen may face problem while persuading minorities population, there are more than 10 per cent of Muslim population living in France who will definitely remain reluctant for Pen. Therefore Pen may acquire votes from rest of the 88per cent of population which are Catholic as Le Pen. Her anti immigration policy may impress rest 88 per cent population as though happen in America with coming to power of U S President Donald Trump.

 

Mohit Pandey
M.S.C Economics
mohit.doon98@gmail.com

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