Public Sector Banks recapitalization plan

Can be also read at our blog

Public Sector Banks recapitalization plan

Indian government has come up with intent to strengthen the Public sector banks. The national financial system had been observing the alarming rate of rising NPAs of the PSBs and that had been a major concern in the economy. The total amount of   Rs. 2,11,000 Crore to Clean Up Legacy of NPAs will be released in next 2 years through budgetary provisions of Rs. 18,139 crore, recapitalisation bonds to the tune of Rs. 1,35,000 crore, and the balance through raising of capital by banks from the market while diluting government equity (estimated potential Rs. 58,000 crore).

Biggest thing to consider is that government’s actions will not be confined solely to mere recapitalization program. Owing to a fact that PSBs have a share of more than 70 % in financial system, further steps will be taken to enhance their role in financial system.MSMEs growth will also be paid special attention.GOI concluded that aggressive loaning to sectors with excessive capacity created large stressed assets as high as 12% by 2014.Asset quality reviews carried out in 2015 revealed high level of stress among the PSU banks. Gross NPA rose in PSBs from from 5.43% (Rs. 2,78,466 crore) in March 2015 to 13.69% (Rs. 7,33,137 crore) as of June 2017.

The need for such stimulus package.



Gross NPA rose in PSBs from from 5.43% (Rs. 2,78,466 crore) in March 2015 to 13.69% (Rs. 7,33,137 crore) as of June 2017.There had been consistent fears about the strain faced by banks and various rating agencies had been time again emphasising the need to make some revamp in the existing banking system. By March 2017 8 of major PSU banks had NPA s as high as 10 %.However few banks had been able to let their NPA ratio come down ,and their seemed an indication that this trend may continue in the future.

Steps taken by government in this regards over last few years.


Indradhanush Plan for recapitalising PSBs was announced by the Government on 14.8.2015. Government envisaged capital need of Rs. 1,80,000 crore till 2018-19. Accordingly, Government made provision   of  Rs.  70,000   crore   and projected market-raising of capital by banks to the tune of Rs. 1,10,000 crore. The launch of Indradhanush before the sharing of AQR findings by RBI with PSBs in December 2015 enabled PSBs to successfully remain Basel III compliant despite high NPA and consequential provisioning requirement identified through AQR. The present decision further builds upon Indradhanush.

Government also undertook several legislative changes to facilitate recovery and resolution of stressed assets. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 was enacted as a unified framework for resolving insolvency and bankruptcy matters. The Securitization and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002 (SARFAESI Act) and the Recovery of Debts Due to Banks and Financial Institutions Act, 1993 (which governs Debt Recovery Tribunals) were amended in 2016 to facilitate faster recovery. Further, the Banking Regulation Act, 1949 was amended this year to enable Government to authorize RBI to direct banks to initiate the insolvency resolution process under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code.




Industries’s reaction

Industry had a cautious welcome to the steps announced. Moody’s services indicated that government’s plan is a positive move to recapitalise the PSU banks. It expects that this will help in addressing the issue of weak capitalisation of PSU banks. US-based agency expects that all rated PSU banks would get enough capital to satisfy their Basel III capital requirements ( as well as adequately address their asset quality challenges.

Industry, lawyers and economist sought a greater detail on the roadmap for the recapitalisation plan. A general consensus existed that this move will enhance public investment, which will boot private investment,but the roadmap has to be disclosed.  Government’s statements that the ‘recap bonds’ concept has to be worked out and that it was possible that these bonds may not involve cash flow. International Monetary Fund, such bonds may not be included under fiscal deficit — as it does not add to the spending.

Market’s reaction



Indian markets reacted positively to government stimulus plan. Shares in some of India’s largest banks surged by more than a quarter on the government’s program. The share price of Punjab National Bank, the second-largest state-controlled bank by assets, rose 49 while that of State Bank of India, the country’s largest lender, jumped 27 per cent. Other major state banks such as Bank of Baroda and Canara Bank jumped 28 per cent and 38 per cent respectively.



Other announcements


Government also made few other announcements about the macroeconomic stability of Indian economy, the way growth is expected to grow and also the efforts which have resulted into containing the inflation.There has been good increase in FDI. The gross FDI flows to India in 2016-17 amounted to US$ 60.2 billion, as compared to US$ 55.6 billion in 2015-16 and US$ 45.1 billion in 2014-15. As on 13th October 2017 the foreign exchange reserves exceeded US$ 400 billion.


Transformational reforms like GST , Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, Housing Development, Improved ease of doing business, Institutional reforms{schemes like Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana (UDAY) programme for DISCOMs; liberalization of FDI norms in various sectors; and approval of National Intellectual Property Rights Policy were mentioned} and highest ever disinvestment program were mentioned.



Government’s expectations now


GOI feels that such steps will have a positive impact over the next medium to long term strengthening of PSU banks. Lately SBI and its associated banks have been consolidated into one single identity which has now enabled it to be one among 50 largest banks in the world. So the government expects it to have a noticeable impact over the next coming years.










Press information bureau link on 24th October.



Msc Economics

Doon University{2011-16},

     The Advent of British into Uttarakhand Forest(1815-1945)

  Can be also read at our blog, Brinks of economic thoughts,


This Paper inquest about the advent of colonialism in Garhwal, Kumaon forests and the impact endured by Kumaonie and Garhwali people by invasion of British not only on their state but on entire forest, their own resources. This paper further discourse the advent of British towards Uttarakhand from Kumaon region their proliferation to entire province, rampant extraction of Oak, Timber and Sal trees. The entire region was indentified to fulfil un-quenching need of wood and snatched away all the resources from native people imposed heavy taxes and fines in every alteration of forest rules different ways are determine to exploit each and every single tree. Last paragraph impends to wonder upon sorrow state of Indian forest form 1805 to 2017 as only regime changes but situation remains unvarying.

Uttarakhand and its Forest

The Advent of British Empire sail form Kumaon region to entire Uttarakhand. Unlike Gorkhas , people of Uttarakhand deliberately supported British regime due to suffering and agony bestowed by the Gorkhas. Although both the regimes of Gorkhas and British had exploited each-every facade of natural resources of Uttarakhand. After defeating Gorkhas the British started prolifying its dirigisme into entire province of Uttarakhand started form kumaon and headed toward Garhwal region.

After 1815 northern region forest commander Dietrich Brandis under commissioner G.W Traill, they entered Himalayan region with the cause, British commenced making laws to exploit the Himalayan forest that to basically looking at the fine quality of Oak and Timber wood which were memorising British to fulfil the demand of strong wood for the construction of northern railways tracks and seats, berths building. British Ramify Uttarakhand forest on three zone first reserved category second Preserve category and third for the civil category unlike without pondering the cascading effect on the Garhwali and Kumaoni people who have great dependence on forest, British kept villagers aloof from their own grown and preserve forest. The reason behind to ramifying entire forest in three different zone was increasing need of wood demand for the British, the preserved forest were made to grow those trees which were basically take time to mature for like Timber wood, the reserved forest was for maintaining ongoing supply of wood for the British either for the ship building or construction of railways and the last small semi areas of dense forest was given to villagers for their consumption need but availability of required natural resources was really negligible, tones of oak and timber was extracted by the English during 1815 to 1840 but after that cascading effects was started, the instances heat of summers during February and June caused lots of forest fire and many times by the villagers due to anger against British due to which British was having revue losses. When the committee was constituted to analyse the reason behind the forest fire under supervision of “Wyndham” submitted his report to Dietrich in his report it was advice to increase villagers participation and co-operation again in the forest activity rather than taking away accessibility of forest from them.

After 1878 the first law of Indian Forest was enacted, under which forest was guard by the local police. But resulted unprecedented despite to provide independence to villagers to excess forest they had been asked to bribe forest police several times even to pick small twigs of woods for their fuel wood, on the other hand black marketing was infused by local police itself private constructed stipulated with forest officials and numerous amount of wood smuggling within the purview of authority was started by the help of river Ganga wood logs had been swim to plain land side and then collected to Bareilly. Therefore British Government was facing tremendous demand of wood for the expansion of railways in the north region and even for inputs for their industries in England. Millions tones of fine well toned wood of oak,sal and Timber had been burned for simply coal purposes for the railway fuel. By observing failure of local police management “Dietrich” suggest British government to dissolve the forest department into revenue department as earlier because after formation of forest department Britisher were excepting increment in the supply of wood which has resulted unsatisfactory. The another aspect of clearing forest has came from the side of British the expansion of their colonies in hills has reduce the forest cover with more plantation of tea business has increased cascading impact on forest cover which was dampened the continuous demand for wood.

Table 1

Timber and Firewood Outturn in Uttaranchal, 1887-88 to 1912-13 (in 1000 cft)

Year Timber Firewood Total
1987-88 1778 3509 5287
1990-91 2712 5831 8543
1994-95 1684 5876 7470
1901-02 2959 5680 8638
1908-09 4087 5877 9964
1910-11 4502 6032 10534
1911-12 5105 6228 11333
1912-13 8692 5402 14395

Source: Annual Progress Reports of the Forest Department, UP, for concerned years.

As it has been observed form the above table that how rampant was the demand of timber from 1888 to 1912 a second highest demand was for the fire wood this is because majority of industry and railways mechanism was demanding energy in form of coal. But after 1915 the Kumaon and Garhwal natural resources had started shrinking, the Kumoan commissioner Dietrich failed to sustain un-interrupted supply and both Preserve and Reserve forest started giving negative returns due to vast variation between reduction in the rate of cutting of trees and rate of plantation and growth. Again after 1915 the British required immense amount of wood supply for the ongoing 1st world war (many of the troops of Kumaon and Garhwal has left the Kumaon regiment to protest against the suppression by British), secondly for construction of ships and for the fuel purposes but irony is faced by the people of Uttarakhand because they were denied to use any of natural resources from their own forest not even for cremation of human body, Kumaonies has to collect wood stick at night from the forest for the coking purposes.


Colonial Approach of Today: According to Wydham we cannot have prosperous forest without co-operation of village society. Today’s Indian forest policy akin with British forestry policy our government still keeps aloof village society from forest. Rigid forest laws keeps villagers totally aloof from the dense forest villagers cannot use any of the natural output of forest if they wish to use any they have to bribe the forest official, same as used to occur in era of British. Despite that people of Uttarakhand initiated well known idea of Chipko movement and activist like Gaura Devi, Sunder lal Bahugana who always stood to perpetuate forest, from them government had taken all the rights and impend them to remain in confused vicious cycle of corruption and trouble. If we really wish to expand our forest cover we have to co-operate between village society and forest department also tries to provide equal property rights to all the villagers as forest also belong to them from decades. British Bishop of London Church had the visit to Grahwal and Kumaon near in 1840 while wondering he saw the massive devastation of cutting and exploitation of natural resources, he further mentioned that Uttarakhand coming generation may not see the beauty of dense forest as it will not prevail forever.


1. The Forests of the Western Himalayas: The Legacy of British Colonial Administration Author(s): Richard P. TuckerVol. 26, No. 3 (Jul., 1982), pp. 112-123 Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of Forest History Society and American Society for Environmental History Stable URL:

2. State, Society and Natural Resources in Himalaya: Dynamics of Change in Colonial and Post-Colonial Uttarakhand Author(s): Shekhar Pathak Source: Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 32, No. 17 (Apr. 26 – May 2, 1997), pp. 908-912 Published by: Economic and Political Weekly Stable URL: Accessed: 17-09-2017 06:24 UTC.

3. The Historical Context of Social Forestry in the Kumaon Himalayas Author(s): Richard P. Tucker Source: The Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 18, No. 3 (Apr., 1984), pp. 341-356 Published by: College of Business, Tennessee State University Stable URL: Accessed: 17-09-2017 06:35 UTC.

Mohit Pandey

RBI Monetary Policy stance of October,2017.

Can be also read at out blog.

RBI Monetary Policy stance of October,2017.



RBI Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep the key rates constant keeping in mind the the rising inflation rate which may settle within 4.0-4.5 % for the rest of fiscal 2018.This neutral stance has been consistent with the policy objective to keep CPI within 4% in a band of  -/+2, and also ensuring that growth momentum is also supported. During the August meet of MPC repo rate had been cut by 25 basis points to 6 % due to fall in inflation. However there had been genuine concerns raised due to loan waivers given to farmers of 88,000 cr which were expected to raise the inflation rate permanently by .2 %


RBI’s assessment


Since the last meet conducted in August 2017, Global economic activities have broadened.

Q 2 results in USA have been promising, although in near term the growth may be affected due to recent hurricanes which caused immense destruction of property. A positive opinion can also be made about the Euro zone economic activities too.Chinese; Japanese, Russian, Brazilian economies continued to be on trajectory of global growth thus enhancing global demand.

WTO assessment has also been positive for fiscal 2017 as compared to the 2016 financial year.OPEC crude production has been cut ,resulting in decline in the supplies and growth in demand, resulting in 2 year high price witnessed in the global crude price. Indian capital markets touched year high in September, before showing little decline due to conflicting situations in Korean peninsula. Equity markets have been on rise in most of the advanced economies. Same has been trend witnessed in the emerging markets. Capital inflows have been rising in the emerging market economies, but they also depend upon the stance of US Federal reserve.

Euro currency grew strong while Japanese Yen witnessed volatility. In India real gross value added (GVA) growth slowed significantly in Q1 of 2017-18.South west monsoon arrived at time but its activity slowed during the time from Mid July to August, thus registering a shortfall of 5 % by September end. This also reflected a decline of reservoir filling capacity to 65 % as compared to 75 % a year ago .Index of Industrial productivity figures grew as compared to June where they had contracted. Manufacturing has been weak although. Inflation figures did hit a 5 month high. Liquidity in the system persisted and at the same time currency in circulation also increased at moderate pace. Indian export growth picked up, better from previous declines over last 3 recorded months. Although Indian exports remained less as compared to many major economies. Gold import has declined, but the current account deficit has also increased considerably.Net FDI has been higher compared to previous fiscal. India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at 399 Bn $.Debt investment saw considerable rise, although there was equity outflow due to global uncertainties.


RBI’s Outlook and growth concern


MPC has assessed that food inflation will be around 4.2-4.6 % for the rest half of the year. Loan waiver given to farmers may put pressure on prices. State’s implementation of salaries similar to centre’s is also bound to put pressure on the inflation figures.Khariff production seems to be falling and so far GST has also seemed to have had adverse affect in manufacturing and thus may have slow investment over period of time.  The projection of real GVA growth for 2017-18 has been revised down to 6.7 per cent from the August 2017 projection of 7.3 per cent, with risks evenly balanced.

The MPC insisted the need to fasten up investment activity which, in turn, would revive the demand for bank credit by industry. Recapitalisation of public sector banks adequately will ensure that credit flows to the productive sectors. Infrastructure bottlenecks need to be checked. Stalled investment projects need to be restarted, particularly in the public sector; enhancement in ease of doing business, along with further simplification of the GST is needed; and ensuring of faster rollout of the affordable housing programs is  must  along with rationalisation of excessively high stamp duties by states.

Next MPC meet will be in December, 2017.


Opinion and expectations


Indian economic growth had slowed to 5.7 % for the first quarter of fiscal 2018, due to effects of demonetisation and change to GST regime. Many prominent economists believed a need to cut the rate to give a boost to the economy. But a slow growth accompanied with a rise in inflation left less room for RBI to cut rates. The policy has been in stance with RBI mandate to keep inflation in check.

Home loan rates are lowest and are unlikely to go down further. Few prominent investors viewed that inflationary pressures are on upside and considered it as a cautious approach. Some had opinion that downside risk to growth has increased. Dampened activities have shown negative effect in all sectors. If such price pressures continue then government will have to boost its spending that may affect fiscal deficit targets.










Xiamen, China BRICS 2017 Summit

Taken from our blog “Brink of economic thoughts”

Xiamen, China BRICS 2017 Summit



BRICS nations have gathered to attend the meet at Chinese city of Xiamen for the 2017 summit from 3rd -5th September. Given the uncertainty which is happening in the region due to Korean peninsula situation and sanctions on Russia by USA {as of interference in 2016 US presidential elections, Crimea and military operations in Eastern Europe}, BRICS was becoming a ground where it was expected that some new declarations will be made which will reshape the world.

BRICS as a block represents nearly 40 % population of the world. Also collectively 5 nations have total GDP of US$16.6 trillion, equivalent to 23 % of global GDP.World bank has estimated that the group nations will grow at a pace of 5.3 % for the year 2017.BRICS as a meet not only allows the nations to discuss multilateral issues, issues related to global economy and climate change, but along the side lines provides the opportunity to discuss bilateral issues.


BRICS has come a long way since its formation in 2009.Initially it had Brazil, Russia, India and China as the founding nations. By 2010 South Africa was also included into the group. So formally BRICS as an organisation was formed in 2011 intended to enhance economic, cultural and political ties.BRICS so far has not only formed a financial institution to counter west dominated IMF and World Bank, but also started financing the infrastructure projects in the nations.BRICS has come up with the Contingent Reserve arrangement and Payment system in 2015.BRICS was coined by Jim O Neil, paper  Goldman Sachs Asset Management,  in his research publication Building Better Global Economic BRICS.Currently many nations are willing to join the group, namely AfghanistanArgentinaIndonesiaMexico .While EgyptIranNigeriaSudanSyria  Bangladesh and Greece have also expressed interest in joining BRICS.


What importance does this meet hold?


This can be referred to the joint statement which has been released by the nations. The theme of the summit is “BRICS: Stronger Partnership for a Brighter Future”. It shows the resolve to share a common vision for the future development of the participating nations.BRICS leaders also praised the formation of New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA), formulating the Strategy for BRICS Economic Partnership. Recalling the success of past summits it has been expected that nations will continue to participate with each other for people’s welfare.BRICS now believe that they have potential to lead towards a more  just and international economic order .Same way these nations expects that world will continue to operate to safeguard international peace based on the central role of United Nations.

Excessive focus has been made on mutual economic cooperation. BRICS have broadly agreed on encouraging and improving trade cooperation and investment cooperation mechanism among them. Nations agreed among the finance ministers and central bank governors about cooperation on Public Private Partnerships (PPP).It is also agreed to financially integrate the network of financial institutions, within the nation’s regulatory framework and WTO compliances. A understanding has been made to promote innovation, industrial cooperation, research development, BRICS energy cooperation, green development, environmental cooperation, agricultural cooperation, wildlife conservation assistance for African continent,anti corruption cooperation, more interaction for manufacturing, e-commerce and skill development, strong labour market information system, competition protection, trade facilitation, mutual respect for use of outer space for space activities, natural disaster management and risk mitigation, making and economic order which gives voice to emerging market and nations, reiteration  towards commitment to the implementation of the outcomes of G20 summits, to achieve a fair and modern global tax system .

The declaration also had points to clarify the BRICS stand on international security.BRICS committed to   enhance communication and cooperation on issues concerning international peace and security.BRICS reaffirmed commitment to the United Nations as the universal multilateral organization entrusted with the mandate for maintaining international peace. Concerns have been made about Terrorist attacks and organisation in the region.BRICS reaffirmed the commitment to fully implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Need of Reform in UNSC were made.

BRICS are looking forward to 2018 summit to be held at South Africa.


What is in it For India ?





Modi and Russian president met along the sidelines of the BRICS meet. Putin thanked Modi for India’s high-level participation at the Eastern Economic Forum, being held in Russia’s eastern port city of Vladivostok.

Both leaders discussed several aspects of bilateral issues in sectors like cooperation in the natural gas and oil sector




India has been having lots of issues related to trade ties with China. We have a huge trade imbalance with China, heavily in favour of China. Our borders have not yet been demarcated properly and local standoffs have been taking place. Use of Brahmaputra river has also become a issue of conflict between China and India due to construction of Zangmu dam and Lalho dam by China .Same way the issue of India’s inclusion to NSG have to be discussed. In the bilateral meet between Chinese premier Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi, views were exchanged with regards to mutual cooperation, and non interference among member nations. Recall of Panchsheel to mutual respect for each others territorial integrity have been made.

As of now it seems that both nations have decided to move with mutual dialogue to resolve the issues given a fact that both nations are large and are bound to have differences. Indian PM and Chinese Premier bilateral meet can be considered forward looking to enhance mutual trade. Peace along the border is important .There is a difference in opinion in both nations’ media. Chinese media has considered Indian army troops move as forceful trespassing on Chinese land. But they never make mentions about Chinese excursion deep into Indian territories. Same way the pain of suffering of terrorist activities in India has to be understood.

Post border standoff between it was a meet that had to be successfully conducted. Nations expect the next decade to be golden decade for BRICS. We must look forward to more and more cooperation among the BRICS nation so as to benefit the populace of the emerging nations.


Harsh Vardhan Pathak.









A short analysis of Chinese Intellectual property conflict with USA.

Taken from our wordpress blog.”Brinks of economic thoughts.”


A short analysis of Chinese Intellectual property conflict with USA.




An introduction


WTO Uruguay rounds meet of 1986-94 did make an introduction of Intellectual Property Rights within the multipolar trading system in the world due increasingly interconnected trade system. New innovations form a significant part of the human evolution. Ideas, inventions, scientific discoveries not only pave way for betterment of humans but also do bring along with them a financial worth for the creators. Innovators are assigned with a legitimate right to not only own their creation, but also prevent others from using their inventions.

There is a considerable variation in which these rights have been created and enforced in nations. With the passage of time these differences have led to bilateral and multilateral tensions in economic relations. These rules were actually supposed to settle the disputes in a systematic manner.


USA-China Relations-A very short insight.


The relationship between USA and China has been regarded by many as the most important bilateral relationship in this century.USA has the world’s largest economy while the People ’s Republic of China has the second largest economy. These 2 nations have come a long way since June, 1844 when formal diplomatic relations were established between the Chinese empire and the USA government. Post WW2,USA recognized Republic of China based in Taiwan, as the Chinese government.USA formally recognized People’s republic of China in 1979.Since that time relations between both nations have seen conflicts to mutual support on varied range of issues.


USA-China Intellectual property rights conflict


USA government now has formally launched an investigation into the Chinese conduct with regards to the Intellectual property rights under section 301 of Trade Act of 1974.

The investigation will be looking after the cases to conclude whether acts and practices of the Government of China with regards to technological use, IPRs and innovation are discriminatory and restrict U.S. interests. US President’s Donald Trump’s memorandum clearly notified that US is one among the forerunners of free and fair trade practices in field of research and development globally. And he will be more than willing to take any sufficient measure to ensure that US innovators, researchers are properly rewarded. On a broader scale it is clearly evident that US has concluded that practises adopted by China with regard to Intellectual property matters is violation of set rules of WTO laid Intellectual property Right rules. The section 301 authorises the US trade representative with the power to take steps where they feel US interest have been hampered by unfair trade practises.

Although one irony can be seen in the opposition of protectionist steps taken by the Chinese administration.USA has been opposing heavy subsidies which are given to the domestic industries in China. It hampers any prospect for the foreign player to operate in the market. These subsidies are already prohibited under the WTO rules. At same time we see USA on a conflict with the developing world on huge agricultural subsidies given to its agricultural sector and farmers.

US trade representatives have been long concerned about deficit which exists in the bilateral trade with China, which currently stands at around 325 Bn $.Total trade between these 2 neighbours stand at around 650 Bn $.USA has been arguing that some reason of this deficit have been that China has been copying US products and services and then selling them back to USA.There have been serious issues with counterfeit goods and even online piracy.

US firms were especially upset about certain partial rules which required local association or disclosure of intellectual property to enter into the Chinese market, which they insisted facilitates transfer and copying of their original ideas.

Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property has come up with indicative figures that the annual cost to the US economy from pirated software and theft of trade secrets is ranging anywhere between $225bn and $600bn.China is blamed for nearly 90 % of US items coming back into the US markets.

USTR report clearly made conclusions that few Chinese practises have been a cause of concern for USA’s interest. The report has also made a series of disclosure of steps which USA can take to WTO with regards to Chinese compliance with the Intellectual Property Rights.

After its accession to the WTO, China undertook a revision of framework of laws and regulations with regards to IPR of domestic and foreign stake holders. Protection of trade secrets in China has become a serious problem. Registration of trade marks in bad faith has been one among the major concerns raised.

China has been aggressively insisting on the import restrictive policies, thus setting a limited market scope for the foreign goods, manufacturers and service suppliers. China has also been pointed out for deploying export restraints, on number of goods where it holds leverage as it is one among the biggest producers of such goods globally.

China has also been one among the largest producers of steel. The Chinese government actions have led to consistent overproduction of steel thus resulting in distortion in global markets. China has imposed ban on import of remanufactured products.

The biggest cause of concern has been about sharing of innovation and technology of a product. In notable number of cases Chinese officials have forced foreign operators to licence their technology and Intellectual property on unfavourable terms. China has investment restriction into many service sectors companies.


In increasingly interconnected world financial services have emerged as major front. Financial economy has a significant impact on geo-economics. But China has still not opened its banking and financial industry to outside players. Same can be said about insurance, telecommunications, and internet, legal and other services.

Overall report indicated that many steps have to be taken by China in order to fulfil its commitment to WTO compliances.WTO membership has introduced China to best global practises ,but still much needs to be done on the forefront of transparency.

Report has been very much critical of land laws, licensing laws and administrative laws which in a way prohibit possibilities of foreign players to participate, or rising of barriers to make entry of outside playersdifficult.

Report has commended the Chinese intent to allow US service provider to operate into maritime sectors.


Chinese reaction


Chinese commerce ministry has issued a statement showing its concern and the potential of the matter to affect the bilateral relations. The remark clearly made that if any kind of disrespect is made towards the trade rules, Chinese administration will not be sitting idle. Official media has been also critical of the possible steps taken by USA.





Trade matters are nowadays deciding the bilateral and multilateral relations. Given the way global community is exhaustively interconnected it leaves no chance to not gain by mutual interactions. World order has moved for its betterment to multipolar realities, much better than earlier existing bilateral blocks. Owing to this fact trade and commerce has also gained momentum among the major powers. Any kind of discrimination done intentionally to harm this spirit must be dealt strictly. People do gain by innovation, not only financially at an individual level, but also impact the society on a larger scale in a positive manner.

One true opinion also exists; there had been many cases of investigation under section 301 of US Trade Act. But as USA worked ,a more proper dispute settling system evolved  up with WTO, where best global practises could have been adopted ensuring mutual benefit among participating parties. In case if USA tries to leave aside the system for whose formation it played a prominent role, it might set an example to other nations to take similar steps unilaterally. This may then become a bigger problem.



Harsh Vardhan Pathak















Uttarkashi and Bhattwadi Block.



This report is about Economy, Criminality and Overall Development of Bhattwadi block. Bhattwadi is the block in Uttarkashi District of Uttrakhand state. Bhattwadi block amalgamates 99 villages. Three of these pertinent points have further bifurcated into as follows. Failure of Agriculture and Devastation caused by flash flood and landslides, the curse of wrong research and policies, road connectivity and infrastructure, Health status and Education. Bhattwadi imbued with slew number of the proletariat and very less number of bourgeoisie and semi bourgeoisie population. But Bhattwadi also ensures punitive injection of wrong analyse, wrong interpretation, wrong economic policy implementation and wrong data collection problems which further have serious cascading repercussion in life of villagers. Health status of Bhattwadi block is on alarming state, although Janani “Suraksha Yojana” has shown some hope of improvement.


The economy of state:


The economy of Bhattwadi district is majorly dependent on Agriculture and farm based products this reason has a bonanza of famous Garhwal Potatoes, Rice, Brown flour(madwa) and rajma (pulses). But condition of Agric economy demise in sorrow state, reason being government have yet not identified its potential like quality of Garhwal products, government should provide and identified  their framer’s products and providing them common platform for agriculture market where they can sell at market prices( for an example Champagne a villages wine which have proliferated in international market.




While investigating in various villages our team has identified numerous amounts of cases of Bride trafficking and girls trafficking cases. Numerous numbers human trafficking has been observed.  Villagers, bride families, their natives and relatives positively responded for bride trafficking. We may assume all these as tools of marriage or bride trafficking.


Overall Development:


All most every village we have covered, lack with basic life supporting amenities like less number of CNG gas connections, Road connectivity, Health facilities, Education only up to primary level, Drugs dealing, the mellow cooperation of Police, Failure of MGNREGA, fragile old houses and high volatility of electricity supply.


Agriculture, Health and Infrastructure:


More than ninety percent of the people are engaged in agriculture. Agriculture is the only source of income for villagers. They had use Hybrid seeds for plantation provided by AJIVIKA and BHUVNESHWARI and RELIANCE. Reliance has adopted Barsu for 5 years. They also provide a POLY house for the incubation of their fields from wild animals and snowfall. Seeds that they brought from Punjab and Haryana are of a bad quality which reduces soil fertility and their production. But most of the crop got damaged by wild animals such as bears, wild boars, wild pork, monkeys and languor. Natural calamities like Floods, Landslide, heavy rainfall, hailstorms, Earthquakes, etc had affected these areas heavily. In June 2013, heavy rainfall resulted in flash floods and landslides and caused huge destruction in these areas.  After 2013 floods lead to the reduction of fertility of land. Whatever grown in fields it is used for self-consumption and not for income generation.  Agricultural techniques of farmers is either absolute or outdated, even now villagers uses traditional methods for agriculture due to which they do not get surplus production. This impedes them more dependent upon government Rationing. They have very fewer land left for cultivation, all their fields got eroded while flashing floods. Sometimes Government also takes their lands for the construction of roads but do not pay any compensation. Houses, roads, markets all the things had affected and connectivity of this area with infrastructural facilities had been hurdled. Roads, Bridges are still under reconstruction. Villages like Gajoli, Naugaon has poor road connectivity because road is broken and underwent reconstruction. Due to which these villages become isolated. After 1991 earthquake, aluminium sheets for houses were provided by HYDRA, RSS, INDRA AWAS YOJANA, Tata Trust and ANGLE SHADE had provided houses more than 30 percent of villagers. The health condition of the people alarming. More than 70 percent of the people do not have toilet facilities and proper sanitation. Bhattwadi often suffers from lack of access to healthcare presentation and rare time for emergencies evacuation. People living in rural areas tend to have a higher rate of tobacco and alcoholism. Around one in five of all women have a Hysterectomy due to pulling heavy wood stock, water canes etc. People are not concerned about their health and hygiene children’s were not even wearing slippers and were wearing filthy clothes.




As if till now after visiting and a number of villages, interviewing villagers and their respective Pradhans the sorrow state of villages has been observed. Entire Garhwal area has been paved by proletariat population hence government should frame policy accord to support the agric sectors, government should also imping and revamp guaranteed employment scheme(MGNREGA). And should seriously implement recommendations by people like Comrade PC joshi, PS Rawat and Mr. Mangain.



Villages Reports.



Village and Block Village: Jhamak  Block – bhatwari




Key informants interviewed (who are they?) The local leader (Gram Pradhan) was very pessimistic regarding government allocation of funds, it is so ludicrous to construct china walls to protect proliferation of forest fire and spending millions on it, rather than understanding basic root cause why forest fire ignites, the very basic notion of forest fire is Palm trees(Chid) these trees do not possess any bonanza for mountain soil but rather act like impurities injections, the falling leaves of Palm tree ignites like fire in cotton he said. Government should initiate re-plantation of trees which are not only lucrative for mountains soil but also for wild animals and villagers, authorities should allot funds in these directions, coherently involving local villagers and other government departments he further stated.


Employment opportunity in the villages It was very astonishing that Jamak have such a naive percentage of MGNREGA employment scheme villagers are found in very negligible amount those who have participate in MGNREGA scheme due to lack of development projects in village. But Jamak also endure some favour after construction of dam, there are the villagers found to be employed in Hydro project dam.  But proportionate population remains unemployed with highly dependency on farming with disguise employment.
Challenges faced Entire Uttarkashi belt come under purview of high seismic earthquake zone so jamak. But jamak is also bless with human construction (Maneri Dam) this village endure heavy shocks of tunnel blasting from last 30 year the entire village soil has shaken and lost its density which has its cascading impact, soil sedimentation due to which villagers living in Kacha and semi kacha houses have to live in fear of   house demolition.


Case study Jamak is also observed seismic on the ground of Bride trafficking villages was not openly stating about incidences but mentioning three to five cases of such incidence. It was also observed that squareness of bride trafficking more diverted towards scheduled tribe rather than general category.


Case 1. Anju is the daughter of Umeed lal and belong to scheduled caste, while investigating with her younger sister told that Anju was married to Mureet 3 years ago and hole marriage was sponsored by in laws.


Case 2. While investigating another case of bride trafficking mushroomed. Junk dealer sold his two daughters one in panjab and Uttar Predesh amount was not stated.  

Case 3.  The boy went to delhi in search of job opportunities but never returns, police did not support the search of boy.

No strong signals were identified between Umeed lal and its in laws nativness. Villages also told about the incompetency of poor schedule tribe who cannot afford expenditure like marriage, it is a bliss that some one ready to take away their daughter without demanding for dowry.


`Health From the last few year “Janani suraksha yojna” playing imperative roll on women after their deliveries, 1400Rs amount of money is given by the government hospitals to these ladies and Ambulance drop infant baby and mother to her native place (Khushi ki Gadi) called in local language. But due to lack of doctors in PHC and CHC villagers have to travel Uttarkashi government hospital even for basic health problems.


Education It has been observed that Jamak ensure satisfactory level of primary education facilities. But the higher level of education accessibility remains absent, children who wanted to pursue their higher studies have to travel or migrate uttarkashi for completing their higher degrees.


Overall experience Jhamak is the most fragile village, which comes under highest seismic zone of earthquake and heavy landslides reason being its geographical location paved by Himalayas most unstable up folding mountains, Maneri Hydro project Dam due its artificial lake, it continuously weakening Jamak soil density, causing heavy landslides now and then, the underground tunnel which passes through Jamak bed also plays pertinent roll for heavy landslides and earthquakes.


Its already mentioned about dependency on farming sector by Jamak people. Jamak already endured more than three-time mega devastation by natural calamities one in 1991, another in 2004 and the last in 2013. Heavy land slides and mellow earthquake tremors have eroded numerous amount of fertile land, reduce per capita land holding area of villagers. Which further damping the amount of farm products and their revenues.


Jamak was observed good cooperation of police, reason may be nativeness of Hydro dam, but good cooperation of police have reduce alcoholism of villagers and they feel sense of incubation from fear and crime. Reliance, RSS and Tata trust have provided villagers with seeds, fruit plants and teen sheets.




Village and Block Village:Naogaon  Block –Bhattwadi



Keyinformants interviewed (who are they?) Naogaon is the other interior and last village of bhattwadi block. While interviewing with Gram Pradam some fascinating facts have immersed. Earlier their use to be numerous amount of agriculture production use to happen, but now situation is totally ironical, our major crop use to be mandwa,Potato,Cholai,Rice but interference of wild animal usually destroy our crops due to which we have to depend on government regular rationing. In every landslides we usually lose our cattles and fertile land.


Employement oppertunity in the villages While investigating Naogaon it was observed that numerous amount of people acquire higher bachelor degrees but due to lack of employment apportunities they have to dependent of agriculture. The another fascinating fact was Naogaon do not have few numbers of people who are employed in MANREGA, most of house holds have worked only for nine to ten days that to without wages, neither government provide any unemployment guarantee.


Challenges faced Naogaon is the most difficult terrain with the point of view of road connectivity, medical emergencies and regular necessary ration supply, this village is the most affected by cloud bust, flash floods and weekly mellow tremors of earthquakes. Villagers complain about government negligence of not providing them 100 guaranteed employment scheme due to which they have to migrate Dehradun and other states in search of employment.


Case study Case 1.  While investigating villagers waffling about network of bride trafficking they said there are few shopkeepers in Uttarkashi who are in touch with some villagers, these villagers connect link between girls parent families and shopkeeper with clients.

Case 2. One case of child adoption was found where boy was adopted 10 years ago due to demise of this blooded parents.

Case 3. Three years back, case was found where intercaste marriage look place when parents denied for marriage ceremony couple decided move out from village but when they came back both of them forcefully re-married to different individuals.


Health This village face extreme difficulties during women deliveries.To reach Naogaon 5 kilometres upstream serpentine path breaks breath several several times, it can be imagine how these pregnant women could reach road side waiting for ambulance. From last four year “Janani shuraksha Yojana” have shown positive implementation, pregnant women are drop and picked by 108 ambulance service without any charges with 1400Rs to women. But due to absences of road connectivity it becomes way difficult for victims to reach road side area. Therefore almost every major and minnor cases have to approach Uttarkashi government hospital. Almost all the villagers do not have any medical  insurance, even small surgery like women uterus operation drag their entire savings.


Education Nawa Goa again faces hindrance in education sector, it has been observed that only primary education is available rest after completing 8th students have to move uttarkashi to attain his secondary and higher education.


Overall experience This village also endure reams of wrong research and policies. Villagers told that  few investigators also approach to their village, they have observed our few cattle due to which they wrongly pulled us from BPL to APL ration category which reduced our food share, we have to lost one to two cattles in every flash deluge and flash floods, if we would been been stayed in BPL category we would have gain some financial support from government in form of cattles or money villager said.


Mahila mangal daal (women community) also honestly fulfilling their social responsibility by control home made alcohol and other form of drugs.


Under Swach Bharatt Abhiyan Swajal department have to provide financial support to families for constructing toilets but in middle of construction Swajal have stopped its financial support to poor families.




By Mohit Pandey

Phone Number 7351705526

China’s economic outlook and debt issues-A short analysis of IMF report of 15th August 2017

Taken from out blog’Brink of economic thoughts”

China’s economic outlook and debt issues-A short analysis of IMF report of 15th August 2017

IMF Executive Board concluded 2017 Article IV in Consultation with the People’s Republic of China. It concluded that sustainable growth path continues and has advanced across other domains. It is necessary to understand the issues related to China’s economy given a fact that its interconnections affect the global economy on a large scale. Given the fact that China has come up with a unique concept like Belt road Initiative, which provides it an access to not only Europe but world markets, either by land ways or seaways. It has to be necessarily understood that why economic thinkers have continued to warn about the debt problem of China. It can be referred as a problem not of the Chinese government or state owned enterprises {SOEs}, but of the Chinese public sector companies.


What is the need to study Chinese economy-Its positive sides and ill practices?


Ken Rogoff  had said last year in 2016 that slowdown of the Chinese economy is the biggest threat to the world. China is today working on ground with 21st century maritime silk route. It has started developing infrastructure in and around Asia for successful completion of the Belt road Initiative. This belt road initiative is expected to bridge the gap in field of infrastructure not only in Asia pacific, but also in eastern and central Europe. It has not only futuristic plans to expand road networks in east Europe, central Asia and east Africa but also the plans to foster collaboration in the region of South China Sea and Indian Ocean through extensive use of water bodies. China has been pioneering the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, established in 2016 having large chunk of investment to carry out in this region .Reportedly Chinese government was frustrated with the slow growth in investment in this region and wanting to have a greater input in IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank .China has initiated the Silk Road fund. There had been issues with underinvestment in infrastructure in industrialized world post 1980 and China in this time silently attained specialization in land transportation and civil engineering works .This dream has the potential to change not only the European economic order but also the international geoeconomics.This being on positive side.

But on negative side China is blamed of dumping. Donald Trump has ordered review of Chinese trade practices. This is with regards to the Intellectual property and may even go up to an extent of trade sanctions. Nations have blamed China of seeking trade benefits while trading in their nation, but not returning the same gesture while operating in Chinese lands. It thus becomes necessary to estimate about the Chinese economy amidst the conflicts which it faces with its neighbors on the disputed issues.


IMF report on China


Growth has remained strong in China but at the same time the sets of vulnerability are very high.GDP growth registered has been as high as 6.5 % in last few years. Demand and supply side growth parameters have been strong in China which is driven by local enhanced consumption and services sectors. Due to steps taken in industrial sector industrial profits have grown up. Chinese authorities have taken steps in last 18 months to stabilize the exchange rate expectations. China officially maintains a managed floating rate arrangement. From December 2015 China has been publishing RMB effective exchange rate index.


Ahead of its full party congress scheduled later this year Chinese economy is well poised now.IMF authorities believe that China will be able to meet its output target but public and private debt will also increase. There are interesting observations made about the Chinese economy. One among says that in case what may transpire in case trading partners raise barriers?  E.g. If  USA allows increase of 10 % In tariffs, the GDP of China may fall by 1 %.Growth however would be sustainable although it may be lower than expected.IMF authorities have although disagreed with it due to brighter growth prospects.


Low consumption and high national savings have translated into lower welfare for Chinese peoples and excessive debts. China will have more elderly population and less working population from 2015 to 2050.Demographic changes will have an impact on the national savings over time. State owned enterprises have been less profitable as compared to private players thus reducing the economy wide productivity. It is thus expected that the Reforms have to be accelerated to enhance productivity for State owned enterprises.

IMF authorities have marked that it is necessary to allow foreign firms to operate in the economy to enhance efficiency of the economy. China has now the largest banking system in the world. The recent growth in non financial debt sector has raised concern for small term macroeconomic stability. The large stocks of intra-financial sector credit have continued to raise important risks for financial stability. IMF authorities have recognized that the growth in the size and complexity of the financial sector raises risks but also argued the problem was manageable.IMF authorities also continued to disagree with the “augmented” debt and deficit concepts used by staff. The authorities also disagreed with staff that the monetary stance was accommodative.

China has foreign currency reserves, at US$ 3 trillion, which is more than adequate to allow a continued gradual move to a floating exchange rate.

Some progress has been made in data frameworks, but still major data gaps remain, undermining policy making and credibility, IMF surveillance, and G20 commitments.IMF authorities also agreed with the need to broaden Chinese  publication of macroeconomic data.


Debt sustainability Analysis of China


In the narrow coverage scenario, general government debt is on a slightly increasing path. The projection reflects a gradual slowdown of real GDP growth to 5¾ percent y/y by 2022 General government debt under narrow coverage at 37 percent of GDP in end-2016 is increasing gradually. Debt has continued to rise rapidly and consolidation will be needed to prevent it from stabilizing at a very high level. Augmented debt will rise rapidly to about 92 percent of GDP in 2022. China faces relatively low risks to debt sustainability, but is vulnerable to contingent liability shocks. China’s debt profile will largely depend on the implementation of the new budget law and, more fundamentally, on the willingness to reduce public investment..

China’s housing and construction sectors will slow down in 2017. Industries which hold the major of China’s corporate debt, including commodities, building materials and other sectors related to construction, will be facing a major chunk of a sustained housing slump. Slow construction growth coupled with skyrocketed debt, along with sharp reductions in debt maturity periods, can easily cause corporate bankruptcies, testing Beijing’s institutional abilities to cope with them. U.S. protectionism and other international developments could put even more pressure on the Chinese economy, forcing Beijing to trade its economic reforms for greater spending to keep the economy sound.

China’s leaders will be on their guard as threats to the country’s social and economic stability mount.


There are reasons to believe that China can tolerate high levels of government debt-due to high savings, capital controls, strong state controls and confidence.IMF China representative along with the World Bank representative agreed on focus to reform in China. Reforms should be aiming at prevention of further buildup of risks which are stemming from rapid credit growth, intra-financial sect oral claims, and moving the economy to a more inclusive, environment-friendly, and sustainable growth path. This is also giving the markets a more decisive role, so eliminating distortions, and modernizing policy frameworks which will result in a more efficient use of resources, faster productivity growth, and rising living standards across the income spectrum.



Harsh Vardhan Pathak







Uttarakhand and Waiting Mountains



Today’s Uttrakhand faces euphoric concept called Migration. We usually keep on listening debates on news channels about Uttrakhand Migration and politician waffling about how to curb Migration. While retrograding my Professor opinion on both side migrations accruing our state, Uttrakhand is on serious call to applaud devil and dissent with serenity. My last 22 days visit to Uttrakashi District for field survey left with some of intriguing issues and facts about future of Uttrakhandies. Well it’s so astonishing that neither a state  nor centre government had ponder how to stabilised migration, instead of their political agenda, on the serious note Uttrakhand is glittering on the hand of mafia’s and human traders.This paper revel about the sorrow state of Uttarakhand Migration, this report also ponder upon whether migration should be considered as problem or a global phenomena which is unstoppable, This report provide same suggestion due to which government can cartel 60 per cent of its migration and migratory pattern. 



Table 1

Select Demographic Features of Uttarakhand and India, 2011

Sl. Variable         Uttarakhand   India
No.             Hill Plain areas Total  
1. Population (in millions)   48.50 52.36 100.86 1210.8
2. 0-6 years population (%)   13.18 13.68 13.44 13.60
3. Population growth rate (2001- 0.70 2.82 1.74 1.64
4. Sex ratio (all age groups) 1037 900 963 943
5. Sex ratio (0-6 age group)   894 888 890 919
6. SC population (%)     20.91 16.78 18.76 16.6
7. ST population (%)     1.05 4.60 2.89 8.6
8. % Urban population     17.06 42.43 30.23 31.2
9. Growth  in urban population 2.43 3.81 3.42 2.80
10. Literacy Rate (%)     80.87 76.90 78.82 73.0
11. % Workers (main plus 43.71 33.47 38.39 39.8
  marginal) in total population        
12. WPR- Male       48.32 50.84 49.67 53.3
13 WPR-Female       39.26 14.16 26.68 25.5


Source: Calculated from Primary Census Abstract, India and Uttarakhand, 2011




Migratory Pattern and Migration:


Migration is mellow dramatic politics of Uttrakhand number of politicians waffling about migration and their impact and even demonstrates their plan to halt migration and advocates for reverse migration, but pragmatically reverse migration is same as “cultivating sugar cane in desert”. Before starting to write about migration and its adverse impact, the very notion we all should ponder that whether migration is a problem or a trend of globalisation, which is indispensable and unstoppable, does cause of migration are similar in entire Uttrakhand or dependent on three basic foundations like education, health and employment, is debacle. This report will future discusses many other factors of migration. Due to variations in geographical terrains Uttrakhand do not have similar factors affecting migration and its causes, it has been observed that Uttrakhand possess different factors causing migration in different parts of Uttrakhand, which implies that Uttrakhand need different policies to tackles with factors causing migration along with different regions of Uttrakhand. There are some factors which have been identified while my field visit, they are as following:


1.Education Migration:


Education is the most pertinent tool to re-shape not only individual future but also decides modernity of future. Government have started mid day meal and free assistance to the poor families to augment number of students in classes, we have seen status of primary education though have gained some strength but still majority of students fails to have accessibility of higher education and field of innovation. Tangling issue faced by the Garhwal students is to whether or not attend the classes in different weathers because they have to travel more than five to seven kilometres every day for their classes. Rest of the students somehow managed them self’s to settle in Uttrakashi for higher education, for different coaching classes to prepare for future studies. Due to lack of proper higher education institution students have to migrate to different district and states which can be called as Education Migration.



2. Health Migration:


Health is another trembling issue faced by the Garhwalies (people living in Grahwal). While taking interviews of villagers they keep on recounter about flash flood and landslides due to which not only villagers get injured but also their cattle’s, many of the incidence happened in the past where villagers get injured while landslides and cloud bust they have to rush hospital but due to any primary bandage victim have to lose their last breath. While collecting sample for different villages and blocks not a single village had blessed with Primary health centres (PHC) fortunately if some village have one, that do not posses a single doctors with absence of availability of medicines. Government “Janani Suraksha” scheme have shown some hope for betterment, under this scheme. Pregnant women can call for 108 (Ambulance help line) Ambulance picks and drop women and her ward to her village without any monetary charges, government hospital also pays 1400 rupees to the women after getting delivery of her child. Bhattwadi and Dunda blocks of villagers have to dependent on Uttrakashi government hospital for the medical aid and have to face crunch of availability of good doctors, many of the villages even do not have road connectivity due to which pregnant women and patients have lifted by human poachers to the reach native village which have road connectivity, (it was hard to imagine how to poach a pregnant women in those vertical muddy and bumpy path).The another Blocks Purola and Nauguan village have dependency on the Badkot villages which have some medical facility with lack of availability of good doctors, failure of dependence on these reason hospital people have to rush Dehradun for better health. These all condition and circumstances impede villagers to permanently settle in villages. They also migrate for the better health because their appointments with doctors waiting fare in Dehradun or Rishikesh.


3. Employment Migration:


Employment is another pertinent toll to curb out migration. While investigating it was observed that number of household either dependent on the agriculture or grace of MGNREGA guarantee employment scheme. It has been observed that all the Gram Pradhans (excluding one of them) are playing thick money making game while generating employment of the villagers. Pradhans fails to provide employment more than 20 days and that to without any wages for their work. The number of villagers has dependency to the private contraction happing in their village or in the native villages because process of wages payment in MGNREGA is too late and complex every blog officer blame for payment incompetency to some other officer (senior or junior designation). Not even private construction but also government guaranteed employment scheme does not have consistency in work and wages, due to which villagers have to move out from their town and district to the search of better work and greater possibility. This further ignites the migration of villagers.


4. Agricultural Migration:


The majority of villagers are proletariat and regularly do farming in every seasons, not for selling their agric products but for their self consumption because majority of population had to dependent on the government rationing. This is because due to flash floods, hail stormed, landslides and wild animals, villagers had to lose their fertile land which was eroded by these natural calamities every years and still getting eroded, this has actually reduce the number of percentage of land holding of the villagers, those who used to plunge their own field now have to dependent on others land and working with them not for wages but for a small share of the ration.


5. Natural Calamities Migration:


One the village called Naugaun in Bhattwadi district is affected by the most frequent natural calamities every year and even twice in the rainy season. The mountain above this village usually drags down deluge and not only damages human shelters but drags away their cattle’s like cow and goats.  Many of the Pradhan likewise this village have told that due to these natural threats many of the villagers have left their heritable properties and migrated to some other low land areas. This is another field and effective cause letting migration.


6. Infrastructure Migration:


There are still many villages which lacks amount of proper infra for the development of the villages. The most pertinent thing to connect the villages is road connectivity. It has been observed that, many villages are do not come inside purview any connectivity of roads due to which it becomes very difficult for the authorities  to have constant linkage for the village at time of  emergencies like medical evacuation, pregnant women and another assistance like necessary life supporting commodities. Due to lack of road connectivity villagers decided to migrate to other parts of district here they can have proper road connectivity.


Table 2

Use of remittances % households
Basic consumption need 91.8
Education of children 60.1
Health care 64.3
Payments for labour and other costs relating to agriculture 12.2
Repair of house 8.2
Purchase of consumer durables 2.0
Payments of loans 3.1
Purchase of land 2.0
Source: Maingai Report   





Suggestions to tackle Migration through Agriculture

From last 21 day I have taken various interviews of Gram Pradhan and Villagers majority of villagers are mainly proletariat, but ironically maximum of them dependent on government rationing, In my opinion Uttarakhand not endure similar pattern and impacts factor  causing migration, but every reason beset by its own impinging effect of migration. There are numerous ways through which out migration can be tackled, like building infra and other facility but Uttarakhand government does not understanding the very imperative realm of migration and that is Agriculture of state. The pragmatic notion as fellow:

  1. Negligence’s towards agricultural sector:

Let me tell you Uttarakhand agric product have slew demand in other state of India due to its purity, taste and quality like Potatoes, Tomatoes, Rice, Brown Floor(manduwa), Pulses (Rajma)  including many medicines plants which cannot grow in other parts of India. There are cases found in many cities where various agric product are been sold by the name of Garhwal Brand. Therefore authority should only focus on improving and taking into account lack of infra availability, the main root cause of out migration is employment that is true, authority will have construct some policies towards employment through agricultural which used to prevail earlier.


2.Lack of cold Storage:

Agric product also suffer from the limitation of proper storing facility, Uttarakhand(UKD) have immense diversity of its weather, UKD have numerous amount of landslides accruing in every now and then mainly during monsoon season same times when farmers have bonanza of crops, but the problem arises how to store (cold storage).To get rid of loses farmer  have to supply their product as soon as possible to plane areas of UKD but due to bad weather and heavy landslides trucks usually struck in various parts of UKD hills impacting profit margin of the farmer income.

3. Least co-operation between farmer and Forest department:

It has been mention by the every single villager as well farmer that more than 70 to 80% of  their crops has been destroyed by the wild animals like Blue bull, Pork, Wild Bear, Monkeys and other animals. But farmer do not have any right to kill any of these wild animals if happens they have to levy with heavy monetary penalty punishment by the forest department.

4. Preservation by Forest Department:

Incubation of wrong trees may have cascading affect, UKD forests have bonanza of Cedrus (deodar)trees,  his qualities are, it do not holds soil erosion (which infuse landslides), it ignites forest fire during summer, do not provide any fruits, its roots do not holds water but ironically forest departments preserve it. Himachal is known for this apples orchards when why can than why not UKD both endure almost akin scale of weather conditions, Himachal understands its revenue coffer through agric products (it orchards)

Know it is very favourable time for UKD government to improvise its Agric policy. Government can implement co-operate farming through which government can allot a certain area of forest to every family of farmers and aid them to grow some fruit trees which will start giving return in coming three year, but this is not possible without co-operation of forest department because despite of been Women like Gaura Devi who had started Chipko Movement in 1987, propagated that forests are same like their own family today these forest have been snatched way by the government. The Government should re allot some forest land to every family for only fruits trees farming and lease them land for more than 20 year with renewal of licences because villagers will never do trees farming in fertile land that to they have very less which usually eroded in every monsoon.

5. Tackle wild animals:

The Plantation of fruit trees will also have cascading effect on the advent of wild animals. This is because animals only attracted towards farmers crop is due to reduction in the amount of food available in the jungle but with the plantation of fruit trees in jungles will not only quench their hungriness but also preserve farmer’s crops due to fulfilment of their food needs.


My all the opinion is fully based on the various interviews and some of the research papers on migration mentioned on the references. I strongly advocate my opinion if UKD government have to tackle with migration it have to focus on its agric policy which absolute in hills, the only way through which migration can be halt is through attain self financial reliance and right policy with its ground implementation.




  1. Rajendra P. Mamgain and D.N. Reddy, OUTMIGRATION FROM HILL REGION OF UTTARAKHAND: Magnitude, Challenges and Policy Options in 2014.
  2. Proliferating Migration of Uttarakhand’s Youth – Reasons, Remedies and RecommendationsUniversity Of Petroleum and Energy Studies,  Author Guid, Dr Vickram Sahai Associate Professor Dr Rati Oberoi Assistant Professor.


Author Peeyush Bharadwaj and Mohit Pande




It’s called revers migration.

Taken from our blog,”Brink of economic Thought”


It’s called revers migration.


From last and more than 25 days I was traveling with TISS on the project called human trafficking in Uttarkashi Block. Therefore I have a short note on the sorrow state of Uttrakhand hills.

Today’s Uttrakhand faces euphoric concept called Migration. We usually keep on listening debates on news channels about Uttrakhand Migration and politician waffling about how to curb Migration. While retrograding my Professor opinion on both side migrations accruing our state, Uttrakhand is on serious call to applaud devil and descent with serenity. My last 22 days visit to Uttrakashi District for field survey left with some of intriguing issues and facts about future of Uttrakhandies. Well its so astonishing that neither a state  or centre government do not pondering in this direction either have any policies to curb the situation, on the serious note Uttrakhand is glittering on the hand of mafia’s and human traders. Here is the small report.

1. Seven out of four households had sold their girls to Haryana, Delhi, Hyderabad, Rorkee, Dehradun, Punjab and Uttra Pradesh due to incompetency of their financial stability.

2. Entire village children’s imbued in local drugs and selling it with the aid of taxi drivers and local dealers.

3. Majority of farmers had lost their fertile land due to landslides and flash floods. Farmer had to dependent of government rationing.

4. MGNREGA complete fiasco and amnesty.

5. Upward migration by Muslims, Biharies, Jatts, Nepalese, Bangladeshis and some individuals without identification.

6. Bride trafficking to Haryana, Delhi, Hyderabad, Punjab and Uttra Pradesh due to incompetency of financial stability and developed a network to foster bride trafficking.

7. Majority of people owing properties from different states.

8. MLA’s are involved in Girls Trafficking.

9. Children’s after completing their 12th working in hotels and restaurants in different parts of country.

10. Still bondage labour.

It usually impinged me from inside, why Uttrakhand seceded from Uttra Pradesh what was the reasons.

In this report I have tried to collect every facet of truth and also have detailed report some coming.

Mohit Pandey

Doon University.




Will French elections decide European Union future

Taken from our blog,”Brink of economic thoughts”

Will French elections decide European Union future


  • France is finally ready to grape its presidency, It advents towards its 2017 General Elections, with its two final charismatic candidates Macron and Pen. It will be very early to elucidate whether the essence of election will decide European Union integration with France, but down the line both the candidates fighting fiercely in their ongoing campaign are competing on the issue related towards central debate in France for last many years such as (illegal immigrants, anti Semitism, job creation, freedom from monetary union and autonomy for controlling nation borders).It has been observed in disintegration of Great Britain from EU, Illegal immigrants and unemployment had played a significant roll seceding from EU, so no wonder Frexit. Republican Francois Fillon conceded within less than an hour of polls closing after placing third with a projected 19.9 percent, while Socialist Benoit Hamon trailed in fifth place with just 6.4 percent. Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon was at 19.6 percent and refused to concede. On seventh of May 2017 France will get its newly elected President in office it will be either of Marine Le Pen or Emmanuel Macron we will be witnessing soon.
    Macron as pro businessmen:
    Macron enjoys legacy of investment banker, also severed as economic advisor with Franci Hollan regime, jeopardising entire businessmen across Europe and within France. According to Bloomberg entire lobby of investment banker’s proponent raising toast for Macron victory. From very begging, while presidential debate Macron has elucidated his vision for France masses, which can be ramify as following:
    1. If Macron wins promises to save businesses and corporate houses across the France soil, there are many businessmen who presently working in entire Europe, Macron already advocated EU integration and its dirigisme.
    2. Secondly Macron also advocated for single visa and work permits for European people.
    3. Brussels has come out openly supporting Macron.
    4. Integration with entire Europe or single market, free trade and free flow of labours supply will create more demand boosting more employment and revival of economy accord Macron.
    5. After the first round of election, Macron stayed at first position by defeating Le Pen, euro has shown strong signal and appreciated, this clearly showing optimism of various investors in Macron.
  • Marine Le Pen as anti immigrants
    Le Pen is perceived as a dynamic personality akin as of her father as both of them belong to far most rightist group, Le Pen also known for improving her father and his party radical image several times but last day of election will determine whether she succeeds or not for the elevated office. As contrast to Macron policies as for wider vision for France President elect Pen has also elucidated her stand on reluctance towards EU, freedom from monetary union, autonomy towards securing their borders, increasing taxes on foreign workers, halting immigration from entire Europe.
    Her vision can be ramify in following reasons.
    1. Le Pen fighting election on issue of illegal immigrants across from Europe and from rest of the world in her presidential speech she have mentioned several time to abandon Europe from immigrants .
    2. Pen also prepared to tax foreign workers more as compare to France workers; basically advocating rational being towards securing French workers, providing them priority before having it to foreign hands.
    3. As the part of EU France is also part of monetary union though (UK was not) being part of monetary union EU central bank have all the autonomy to tinker with all the bank rate, credit supply, financial decision, fund allotment to various investment projects, International treaties with different nations including, taxation autonomy depends with EU central bank dirigisme. As according to her promise if she becomes successful, it will be France to control its central bank thought which can be only possible in occurrence of Frexit.
    4. Simple Labour law can Boost economic growth, according to Le Pen promise its is pertinent to improve labour laws, basically France worker are authorised to work for 35 hours a week, but many firms refusing to pay wages if they working more. Increase in working hours should also increase incentives of works which will further impinge economic growth, along with increment in investment on training programs and education accord Le Pen.
  • According to (Snap Ipsos Survey) Macron is way ahead from Le Pen, but incidents like Brexit, US election result have already failed all the predictions in past. As anti immigrants policy Le Pen may face problem while persuading minorities population, there are more than 10 per cent of Muslim population living in France who will definitely remain reluctant for Pen. Therefore Pen may acquire votes from rest of the 88per cent of population which are Catholic as Le Pen. Her anti immigration policy may impress rest 88 per cent population as though happen in America with coming to power of U S President Donald Trump.


Mohit Pandey
M.S.C Economics